Polymarket Earnings Dashboard

📊 Active Trades (Live) Loading positions...

Symbol	Direction	Timing	Entry Time	Entry Price	Current Price	Shares	Position Value	Unrealized P&L	P&L %	Earnings Release	Stop Loss	Status	Chart
📊 Loading active positions...

Auto-refreshes every 10 seconds • Prices from IBKR

💼 Active Positions Timeline & Prioritization 0 open positions • 6-day view (Yesterday → Day+4) • Priority-based execution

Yesterday

TODAY

10/14

Thu

10/15

Fri

10/16

Sat

10/17

CLOSED

Sun

10/18

CLOSED

Market Hours

Pre

Open

After

Pre

Open

After

9:30

16:00

Pre

Open

After

Pre

Open

After

NOW

📅 Pending Opportunities (8 with 70%+ LONG or ≤30% SHORT conviction in timeline window)

BAC

SHORT • Large • 0%

2026-10-14 BMO

📢 Expected: ~7:00 AM ET

P:SKIP Entry 15:58

P:SKIP Exit 10:32

SHORT • Large • 0%

2026-10-14 BMO

📢 Expected: ~7:00 AM ET

P:SKIP Entry 15:58

P:SKIP Exit 10:32

BLK

LONG • Large • 100%

2026-10-14 BMO

📢 Expected: ~7:00 AM ET

P:SKIP Entry 15:58

P:SKIP Exit 10:32

STT

LONG • Mid • 100%

2026-10-14 BMO

📢 Expected: ~7:00 AM ET

P:SKIP Entry 15:58

P:SKIP Exit 10:32

BNY

LONG • Mid • 92%

2026-10-15 BMO

📢 Expected: ~7:00 AM ET

P:SKIP Entry 15:58

P:SKIP Exit 10:32

USB

LONG • Mid • 81%

2026-10-15 BMO

📢 Expected: ~7:00 AM ET

P:2/3 Entry 15:58

P:2/3 Exit 10:32

MTB 🌙

LONG • Mid • 74% • 50%

2026-10-16 AMC

📢 Expected: ~4:00 PM ET

P:3/3 Entry 10:34

P:3/3 Exit 15:57

CFG

LONG • Mid • 81%

2026-10-16 BMO

📢 Expected: ~7:00 AM ET

P:2/3 Entry 15:58

P:2/3 Exit 10:32

Priority Scale (0-3, B-4 table #366) = conviction sub-band only (no market-cap rank, no volume bump):

Cell (conviction sub-band)	score	evidence label
LONG 70-75% (any mcap, incl. small)	3/3	Gauntlet PASS — the only rank the data insists on (p=0.028/0.005, reproduced on CF-native)
LONG 80-85% (large/mid)	2/3	Weak evidence, explicitly labeled (sign-robust +$6.74/t but p=0.22) — ranked so the conviction tie-break can't prefer 85-90
LONG 75-80% any mcap · LONG 85-90% large/mid · SHORT ≤30% large/mid · 🧪 B-5 pilot small-cap LONG 80-90% (never rank 2 — §12.5)	1/3	Neutral tie pool — no evidence either way; ties are the honest output
SKIP (hard rules unchanged)	0	LONG <70% or ≥90% (C-1) · small-cap LONG ≥90% effective (B-5 pilot ON, #366; ≥80% again if reverted) · small-cap SHORT · dead zone 30-70%

B-4 table (#366, Aug 20 2026): the 0-10 mcap×conviction+volume ladder is RETIRED — the market-cap spine (F-001) and the volume bumps (F-002) are both refuted; conviction sub-band is the only dimension the data supports. Approved as fill-ordering/safety infrastructure, not a profit claim (admission-inert under S2c; K-B4 re-check at 25 live ordering-decided slots or Nov 30). Confidence band: LONG = beat probability; SHORT = miss confidence (1 - conviction); SHORT miss-conf ≥ 90% stays SKIP.
C-1 (#366): the 90-95% LONG band is CLOSED again (was open Jul 11–Aug 20 per #333/#334 — B-005 failed the gauntlet live). M-C1 shadow monitor logs the would-have-been entries. If ever reopened, the band ranks STRICTLY LAST (§14.3 tripwire). SKIP (0): conviction in the 30-70% dead zone · LONG ≥ 90% (C-1/#366) · small-cap LONG ≥ 90% effective (B-5 pilot ON — 80-90% admitted at rank 1, tagged, ≤2 concurrent, #366) · small-cap SHORT (squeeze risk) · SHORT needs conviction ≤ 30% · INTRADAY timing. Exchange no longer affects priority.

Direction:

LONG

SHORT

⚠️ Weekend Hold

Entry/Exit: BMO: 3:58 PM → 10:32 AM | AMC: 10:34 AM → 3:57 PM Skip: <70%, LONG 90%+ (C-1 #366; was 95% #333), small-cap LONG 90%+ effective (B-5 pilot ON: 80-90% trades tagged 🧪, #366), small-cap shorts, INTRADAY timing. Stops: Large -3%, Mid -4%, Small -5% (STOP-LIMIT)

📅 Upcoming Earnings with Polymarket Data Next 14 days • Sorted by date • DB 39 rows

Date	Stock	MCap	Priority	Time	Conviction	Min Required	Volume	Min Volume	OB Quality	Dir	Trade?	Outcome	Hold	Link
2026-10-14 Wednesday	BAC (Bank of America Corp...)	Large	SKIP	BMO	0.0%	≤30% ✗S	$3,045 @adm	≥$1,000 ✓	30% ⚠	SHORT	NO EDGE	❌ MISS · RESOLVED	-	🔗
	MS (Morgan Stanley)	Large	SKIP	BMO	0.0%	≤30% ✗S	$3,594 @adm	≥$1,000 ✓	30% ⚠	SHORT	NO EDGE	❌ MISS · RESOLVED	-	🔗
	BLK (BlackRock, Inc.)	Large	SKIP	BMO	100.0%	70-89% ✗90+	$7,244 @adm	≥$1,000 ✓	30% ⚠	LONG	NO EDGE	✅ BEAT · RESOLVED	-	🔗
	STT (State Street Corpora...)	Mid	SKIP	BMO	100.0%	70-89% ✗90+	$2,870	≥$1,000 ✓	30% ⚠	LONG	NO EDGE	✅ BEAT · RESOLVED	-	🔗
	9 others (2 Large, 1 Mid, 6 Small)
2026-10-15 Thursday	SCHW (The Charles Schwab C...)	Large	SKIP	BMO	67.0%	70-89% ✗	$48	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	BNY (The Bank Of New York...)	Mid	SKIP	BMO	92.5%	70-89% ✗90+	$4,434	≥$1,000 ✓	1-SIDED	LONG	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	USB (U.S. Bancorp)	Mid	2/3	BMO	81.0%	70-89% ✓	$823	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	LONG	LOW VOL	-	-	🔗
	PNC (PNC Financial Servic...)	Mid	SKIP	BMO	68.0%	70-89% ✗	$2,090	≥$1,000 ✓	1-SIDED	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	IBKR (Interactive Brokers ...)	Large	SKIP	AMC	48.0%	70-89% ✗	$2,381	≥$1,000 ✓	1-SIDED	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	22 others (2 Large, 6 Mid, 14 Small)
2026-10-16 Friday	TFC (Truist Financial Cor...)	Mid	SKIP	BMO	52.0%	70-89% ✗	$1,463	≥$1,000 ✓	1-SIDED	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	MTB (M&T Bank Corporation)	Mid	3/3	AMC	74.5%	70-89% ✓	$2,838	≥$1,000 ✓	1-SIDED	LONG	PM FALLBACK	-	⚠️	🔗
	CFG (Citizens Financial G...)	Mid	2/3	BMO	81.0%	70-89% ✓	$398	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	LONG	LOW VOL	-	-	🔗
	13 others (2 Large, 2 Mid, 9 Small)
2026-10-19 Monday	WTFC (Wintrust Financial C...)	Small	3/3	AMC	72.0%	70-89% ✓	$507	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	LONG	LOW VOL	-	-	🔗
2026-10-19 Monday	28 others (7 Mid, 21 Small)
2026-10-20 Tuesday	NFLX (Netflix, Inc.)	Large	SKIP	AMC	55.0%	70-89% ✗	$418	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	COF (Capital One Financia...)	Mid	3/3	AMC	72.0%	70-89% ✓	$0	≥$1,000 ✗	1-SIDED	LONG	LOW VOL	-	-	🔗
	MMM (3M Company)	Mid	SKIP	BMO	91.0%	70-89% ✗90+	$2,573	≥$1,000 ✓	16% ✗	LONG	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	MSCI (MSCI Inc.)	Mid	SKIP	BMO	49.5%	70-89% ✗	$799	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	UAL (United Airlines Hold...)	Mid	SKIP	AMC	35.0%	70-89% ✗	$2,468	≥$1,000 ✓	1-SIDED	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	HAL (Halliburton Company)	Mid	SKIP	BMO	62.5%	70-89% ✗	$376	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	KEY (KeyCorp)	Mid	2/3	BMO	84.5%	70-89% ✓	$567	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	LONG	LOW VOL	-	-	🔗
	EFX (Equifax, Inc.)	Mid	SKIP	AMC	68.5%	70-89% ✗	$2,165	≥$1,000 ✓	1-SIDED	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	HAS (Hasbro, Inc.)	Mid	1/3	BMO	86.0%	70-89% ✓	$2,273	≥$1,000 ✓	1-SIDED	LONG	PM FALLBACK	-	-	🔗
	ALLY (Ally Financial Inc.)	Mid	SKIP	BMO	39.5%	70-89% ✗	$307	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	BFC (Bank First Corporati...)	Small	SKIP	AMC	37.0%	70-89% ✗	$910	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	MBWM (Mercantile Bank Corp...)	Small	SKIP	AMC	38.0%	70-89% ✗	$1,227	≥$1,000 ✓	1-SIDED	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	50 others (5 Large, 10 Mid, 35 Small)
2026-10-21 Wednesday	TSLA (Tesla, Inc. )	Large	SKIP	AMC	36.5%	70-89% ✗	$486	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	TXN (Texas Instruments In...)	Large	2/3	AMC	84.5%	70-89% ✓	$1,642	≥$1,000 ✓	1-SIDED	LONG	PM FALLBACK	-	-	🔗
	IBM (International Busine...)	Large	2/3	AMC	82.0%	70-89% ✓	$357	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	LONG	LOW VOL	-	-	🔗
	T (AT&T Inc.)	Large	SKIP	BMO	55.0%	70-89% ✗	$756	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	CME (CME Group Inc.)	Mid	1/3	BMO	85.0%	70-89% ✓	$1,519	≥$1,000 ✓	1-SIDED	LONG	PM FALLBACK	-	-	🔗
	MCO (Moody's Corporation)	Mid	1/3	BMO	87.5%	70-89% ✓	$699	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	LONG	LOW VOL	-	-	🔗
	WDFC (WD-40 Company)	Small	SKIP	AMC	45.0%	70-89% ✗	$2,223	≥$1,000 ✓	30% ⚠	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	IART (Integra LifeSciences...)	Small	SKIP	AMC	69.0%	70-89% ✗	$578	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	77 others (6 Large, 21 Mid, 50 Small)
2026-10-22 Thursday	BX (Blackstone Inc.)	Mid	SKIP	BMO	34.5%	70-89% ✗	$3,302	≥$1,000 ✓	31% ⚠	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	AAL (American Airlines Gr...)	Mid	SKIP	BMO	42.0%	70-89% ✗	$3,298	≥$1,000 ✓	15% ✗	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	UBSI (United Bankshares, I...)	Small	SKIP	AMC	68.0%	70-89% ✗	$51	≥$1,000 ⚠	42% ⚠	--	NO EDGE	-	-	🔗
	STBA (S&T Bancorp, Inc.)	Small	3/3	AMC	72.5%	70-89% ✓	$476	≥$1,000 ⚠	1-SIDED	LONG	LOW VOL	-	-	🔗
	138 others (8 Large, 25 Mid, 105 Small)
2026-10-23 Friday	30 others (1 Large, 7 Mid, 22 Small)
2026-10-26 Monday	66 others (2 Large, 14 Mid, 50 Small)
2026-10-27 Tuesday	189 others (10 Large, 55 Mid, 124 Small)

📂 Database Integrity Dashboard

Live snapshot of every collector, table, timer, and derived artifact. Sourced from integrity_status table populated every 5 minutes by src/data_tracker/integrity_monitor.py. Canonical map: docs/DATABASE_AUDIT_2026_04_27.md. HIGH/CRITICAL transitions emit Telegram alerts via the existing AlertManager.

Loading integrity status...

6,208

Total Markets

1,402

Earnings Markets

≈13,211,401

Orderbook Snapshots

≈27,999,376

Price Snapshots

⏱️ Pane A — Freshness Per-table last-write age vs expected interval

Each row is a freshness rule from integrity_monitor._build_rules. Status: ● ok · ● warn · ● fail · ● unknown. CRITICAL/HIGH triggers Telegram on transition.

Table	Severity	Status	Detail	Last evaluated
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🧪 Pane B — Coverage (NULL-rate) Tracked-quality columns post-fix windows (Findings #234/#243/#252-#256/#307)

Each rule scopes to a windowed population (e.g. trades closed since the fix deployed). Status unknown means the window has too few rows yet to evaluate (graceful — no alert).

Rule	Severity	Status	Detail	Last change
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⚙️ Pane C — Services & Pipelines Every always-on unit + every timer + derived-artifact freshness

Reality-checked unit names (e.g. ibgateway-ibc.service, not ibgateway). Timer freshness uses systemctl show LastTriggerUSec.

Unit / artifact	Severity	Status	Detail	Last evaluated
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💾 Pane D — Storage & Retention Hypertable sizes vs threshold (Phase 5 retention deferred per operator Q2)

No Timescale retention or compression policies applied yet (deferred per operator decision Q2). The storage:* rules below are the safety-net thresholds until Phase 5 ships. See docs/DATABASE_AUDIT_2026_04_27.md §6 for context.

Hypertable	Severity	Status	Size	Threshold	Detail
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📋 Per-Market Data Availability — Upcoming Earnings Joined from earnings_markets (canonical) — top 25 upcoming · counts over the last 7 days · computed 2026-10-14 12:39 UTC (refreshed at most every 6 h)

Market	Earnings Date	MCap	OB Snapshots	Price Snapshots	Trades
WFC	2026-10-13	Unknown	30,814	32,381	19
UNH	2026-10-13	Unknown	30,722	30,825	4
JPM	2026-10-13	Unknown	30,880	32,744	17
JNJ	2026-10-13	Unknown	30,809	31,907	13
GS	2026-10-13	Unknown	31,480	36,035	220
DPZ	2026-10-13	Unknown	30,757	31,238	33
C	2026-10-13	Unknown	31,115	35,607	6
UNTY	2026-10-13	Unknown	30,875	32,239	64
STT	2026-10-14	Unknown	32,056	32,509	5
MS	2026-10-14	Unknown	32,073	33,369	19
BAC	2026-10-14	Unknown	32,105	34,056	10
BLK	2026-10-14	Unknown	36,328	39,149	15
USB	2026-10-15	Unknown	32,033	32,961	5
SCHW	2026-10-15	Unknown	31,998	32,068	0
PNC	2026-10-15	Unknown	32,071	34,968	3
IBKR	2026-10-15	Unknown	32,070	32,563	21
BNY	2026-10-15	Unknown	32,046	32,169	9
TFC	2026-10-16	Unknown	32,045	33,463	8
MTB	2026-10-16	Unknown	32,056	36,649	20
CFG	2026-10-16	Unknown	32,019	32,483	0
WTFC	2026-10-19	Unknown	32,031	32,813	3
ALLY	2026-10-20	Unknown	32,037	35,512	2
UAL	2026-10-20	Unknown	31,780	36,713	19
MBWM	2026-10-20	Unknown	31,770	37,284	13
KEY	2026-10-20	Unknown	31,766	32,898	8

🔬 Testing in Production - Main Findings Key discoveries and decisions during live testing phase

All findings from docs/FINDINGS.md (single source of truth). Loaded dynamically via /api/architecture-findings.

Loading findings...

Loading findings from FINDINGS.md...

📊 Position Sizing Analysis - Next 2 Weeks Capital-tier comparison (whole shares per Finding #4 / active sizing per PKG-357 S2c #366: equal-split ≤25% cap, Aug 20 2026)

Shows how many shares we can buy at each capital level vs the operative sizing (S2c equal-split, ≤25% of capital per name — PKG-357 #366, Aug 20 2026; below the $9k activation gate: FLAT 25% all tiers per #314.f — was 30/22/15 per #211; supersedes the older flat 10% target). The "ideal" deviation column below this table is a legacy 10%-target reference; treat it as a coarse calibration metric, not the active sizing rule.

⏳

Loading position sizing analysis...

🚀 Phase 1 Trading Live trading under the PKG-357 regime (S2c equal-split sizing, #366) • Phase 1 since 2026-08-21 (PHASE1_START_ET, #367) • testing era closed at 193 trades (milestone history: #347)

Phase-1 Trades

193

Testing-Era Trades (frozen)

100%

Sizing Profile

ACTIVE

Status

Phase 1 counts trades from 2026-08-21 (the single PHASE1_START_ET boundary, #367 — set at the PKG-357 deploy). Sizing: S2c equal-split shrink-to-fit, ≤25% of capital per name (#366); flat 25% below the $9k activation gate (#314.f). The testing era (with its 150-trade milestone machinery, retired per #347) ended at the cutover with 193 trades; its P&L is frozen in the History tab's Testing-in-Production ROI window. Earlier milestone reviews: trade 87 (Mar 9), the 100-trade slippage checkpoint, and the 150-trade checkpoint (Jul 29, #347).

🫀 IBKR Connection Health State machine, heartbeat, uptime monitoring

Connection State

Uptime

--%

Uptime %

Last Check

Live Gateway (Port 4001) Checking...

Paper Gateway (Port 4002) Checking...

Account ID --

Net Liquidation --

🧭 IBKR Reconciliation Auto-Fix Trade log + positions (auto-fix + status)

Last Run Loading...

Unified Status Loading...

Trade Log Status Loading...

Trade Issues -

Auto-Fix -

Positions Status Loading...

Position Issues -

Stop-Loss Status Loading...

Stop-Loss Issues -

Stop-Loss Auto-Fix -

📊 Order Types Configured by Exchange & Market Hours All exchanges use STOP-LIMIT for stops across sessions • Slippage tracking active

🟢 Regular Trading Hours (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET)

Entry/exit orders align across exchanges - stop-loss uses STOP-LIMIT (2% buffer) because pure STP is unreliable for outsideRth triggers

Order Type	NASDAQ	NYSE	Status
Entry Order	LIMIT + 0.1-0.3%	LIMIT + 0.1-0.3%	✓
Stop-Loss	STOP-LIMIT (2%)	STOP-LIMIT (2%)	✓
Instant Exit	LIMIT (GTC, 1%) → MARKET fallback	LIMIT (GTC, 1%) → MARKET fallback	✓
Scheduled Exit	LIMIT → MARKET	LIMIT → MARKET	✓

🟢 Extended Hours (All Exchanges, 4 AM - 8 PM ET)

Unified policy: STOP-LIMIT protects outside RTH, and instant exits use LIMIT (GTC, 1%) with MARKET fallback while market is open.

Order Type	Config	Status
Stop-Loss	STOP-LIMIT (2%)	✓
Instant Exit	LIMIT (GTC, 1%) → MARKET fallback (open market only)	✓

📈 Slippage Tracking: Active

exit_execution_analysis table ready

Recording: exchange, order_type, buffer_used, expected_slippage, actual_slippage, time_to_fill
Milestone reviews at 50/100/150 trades completed in the testing era (closed at the Phase-1 cutover, #367); Phase-1 reviews run per the #366 deploy contracts (K-S2C et al.) → Adjust stop-limit buffer if needed

🔌 External Dependencies

Service	Status	Details
PostgreSQL Database	Connected	TimescaleDB enabled
IBKR Gateway (Live)	Checking...	Port 4001
IBKR Gateway (Paper)	Checking...	Port 4002
🤖 Earnings Trader	Checking...	--
📊 Equity 1m Bar Collector	⏰ Daily 10:00 UTC	polymarket-equity-bars.timer · Phase 2
🔄 Data Backfill (weekly self-heal)	⏰ Weekly Sun 04:00 ET	polymarket-data-backfill.timer · 6-pass
📈 Outcome Resolver	⏰ Daily 06:00 ET	polymarket-resolver.timer · 4-tier cascade
Polymarket Gamma API	Available	Markets sync
Polymarket CLOB API	Available	Orderbooks, prices
Polymarket data-api	Available	Live/closed trades (replaced Dome, #289)
Yahoo Finance	Available	Earnings detection, VIX
NASDAQ Earnings Calendar	Available	finance-calendars
PRNewswire RSS	Available	Earnings announcements
NYSE Market Calendar	IBKR liquidHours + fallback	Holiday/early close detection

🔗 API Endpoints Click to test

/api/health Health check

/api/state Dashboard state

/api/signals Trading signals

/api/positions Active positions

/api/conviction-feed Conviction feed

/api/earnings-calendar Earnings calendar

/api/db-stats Database stats

/api/ibkr-status IBKR Gateway status

📚 Project Documentation

Strategy Reference

Conviction Threshold: ≥70% for trades
BMO Priority: Day before @ 3:58 PM entry
AMC Threshold: 70-89% (90%+ LONG skipped — C-1/#366 re-closed the #333 relax; B-005 failed the gauntlet live). AMC capital reserved for BMO when available.
Small-cap LONG band: 70-89% under the B-5 pilot (#366, K-B5: tagged entries, ≤2 concurrent, alert-only revert conditions encoded (#392); approved edge 0.95, truncated by the C-1 cap)
Stop-Loss: Large -3%, Mid -4%, Small -5% (widened Mar 9, Finding #202)
Max Exposure: 150% of capital UNIFORM all days (MAX_DAILY_EXPOSURE=1.50, unchanged by PKG-357; under S2c the wave equal-splits INTO the cap — no fixed slot count. Historical: #335 raised 1.40→1.50 Jul 11 2026 for exactly 6 flat-25% slots; rare/normal/busy collapsed — #317)
Short Selling: Large + Mid cap only, max 2

Position Sizing (S2c — PKG-357, Aug 20 2026, #366)

S2c equal-split shrink-to-fit: enter every qualifying signal, split the free exposure budget equally, never more than 25% of capital per name (S2C_MAX_POSITION_PCT=0.25)
Activation gate: trading capital ≥ $9,000 (S2C_MIN_ACTIVATION_CAPITAL, buffer-aware); below the gate flat 25% all tiers (#314.f) applies unchanged
Floors: 1 whole share minimum with +57% flex; unexecutable signals are skipped at admission (A-7, min_share_size)
History: flat 25/25/25 (#314.f Jul 6 2026) ← 30/22/15 (#211 Mar 10 2026) ← 25/18/10

Circuit Breakers

Daily Loss: -5% → Pause until next ET market open (sole loss brake, CLB-1/#366 — DB-anchored day P&L, survives restarts)
Day P&L tiers: ≤ −2.5% → sizes ×0.50 · ≤ −4% → sizes ×0.25 (replaces the retired consecutive-loss pauses)
VIX > 35: No new positions
S&P 500 -5%: Pause all entries

📚 Strategy & Operations

✅ Phase 0-4 COMPLETE (May 31, 2026): 📐 STRATEGY_ANALYSIS_ARCHITECTURE.md - 4-layer map of every strategy-analysis surface + data-gap matrix + phased revamp roadmap. Phase 3 unified simulator (PR 1-5) + Phase 4 dashboard consolidation shipped (Findings #306-#321). §0.11 Phase 4 changelog.
🎯 STRATEGY_PLAYBOOK.md - Forward-looking source of truth: ranked Action Queue + verified rules + retracted rules + per-rule mechanism (per memory §N)
📋 FINDINGS.md - All findings, fixes, and pending validations (single source of truth per memory §J)
🔬 STRATEGY_AUDIT_v3.md - Audit trail: every hypothesis tested, bias gauntlet, retractions
🤝 AGENT_HANDOFF.md - Onboarding index + §11 current state snapshot
📄 STRATEGY.md - Trading rules, position sizing (S2c equal-split ≤25% per PKG-357 #366, Aug 20 2026; flat 25% below the gate per #314.f), stops (3/4/5% per Finding #202), signal prioritization
📄 OPERATIONS.md - Deployment, infrastructure, backfill status
📄 EDGE_CASES.md - Holidays, early close (long-weekend 50% sizing reconciled Apr 26)
📊 FINANCIAL_PROJECTIONS_REVISED_87_TRADES.md - Revised projections at 87-trade milestone (partially superseded for forward queue by Playbook)
📄 DATABASE_DIRECTIVES.md - Database design principles, source of truth
📄 README.md - Project overview

🔌 IBKR Integration

📄 IBKR_SETUP.md - Interactive Brokers Gateway setup & VNC
🔐 IBKR_CONTINUITY.md - Weekly 2FA, session management, IBC config
📄 API_REFERENCE.md - Polymarket API docs (Gamma, data-api, CLOB, WSS)

🧪 Testing & State Machines

📄 PAPER_TRADING_TEST_PLAN.md - Order types, validation checklist (stale-warning header added Apr 26)
📊 STATE_MACHINES.md - 10 component state diagrams

🗄️ Database & Data Architecture

📄 DATA_ARCHITECTURE.md - Data sources, collection services, schema
📄 DATA_INTEGRITY.md - Gap detection, backfill, health monitoring
📄 DATABASE_DIRECTIVES.md - No tech debt policy, earnings_markets sync
Research: polymarket_opportunity_log (migration 021) + scripts/compute_counterfactual_pnl.py — OPERATIONS.md §6 Database; Finding #221 in FINDINGS.

⚙️ System & Agent

📄 CONTEXT.md - AI agent context bootstrapping
(SYSTEM_REVIEW_2026_01_06.md was archived Apr 26, 2026 — pre-trading "all green" review with stale parameters; replaced by AGENT_HANDOFF §11 + Architecture doc)

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⚠️ Edge Cases & Handling Critical scenarios and their automated solutions

📅 Market Schedule

Market Holidays	Skip trading, check calendar
Early Close (1 PM)	Exit 12:57 PM / Entry 12:58 PM
Trading Halts	⚠️ Alert, retry on resume
3+ Day Weekend Hold	Trade with 50% position size

⏰ Timing Schedule (ET)

BMO Exit	10:32 AM (1h 2min after open)
AMC Entry	10:34 AM (1h 4min after open)
AMC Exit	3:57 PM (1 min buffer)
BMO Entry	3:58 PM (2 min before close)

🚨 Critical Alerts (Action Required)

Gateway Disconnected	🚨 Attempt reconnect
2FA Required	🚨 Approve 2FA push on IBKR mobile app (Sun reconnect); VNC fallback
Database Connection Lost	🚨 Fallback to local state
Position Stuck (+15 min)	🚨 Force market exit

🛑 Circuit Breakers

Daily Loss -5% (sole loss brake, CLB-1/#366)	⚠️ Pause until next ET market open (DB-anchored, restart-safe)
Day P&L ≤ −2.5% / ≤ −4%	⚠️ Sizes ×0.50 / ×0.25 (replaces consecutive-loss pauses)
Drawdown 30%+	🚨 Reduce sizes 50%
VIX > 35	⚠️ No new entries
S&P -5% Intraday	🚨 No new entries

Note: AMC Exit at 3:57 PM provides 1-minute buffer before BMO Entry at 3:58 PM to prevent order conflicts. For full details, see EDGE_CASES.md

📊 Trading Performance & History

💰 P&L Summary 2020-01-01 - 2026-10-14

$-118.34

Total P&L (NET, Realized + Unrealized)

$170.79

Gross P&L (price only)

−$287.48

Commissions Paid

$-248.79

⚠ Error Losses (6 — excluded from stats)

-0.09%

Total ROI

215

Total Trades

39.5%

Win Rate

1.06

Profit Factor

$630

Avg Position

🎯 Trading Capital ROI capital $9,728 · dynamic (net_liq − PDT reserve)

ALL-TIME · 280 days · 215 closed

-1.22%

Total

-0.13%

/mo avg

-1.58%

annualized*

TESTING IN PRODUCTION (2026-01-07 – 2026-08-21) · 225 days · 193 closed

+2.09%

Total

+0.28%

/mo avg

+3.41%

annualized*

PHASE 1 (2026-08-21 – ) · 54 days · 22 closed

-3.30%

Total

-1.86%

/mo avg

-20.31%

annualized*

* Annualized = compound CAGR (1 + return)^(365/days) − 1. Past performance does NOT guarantee future results. This projection assumes future days perform like the period's average and ignores: drawdowns, regime changes, the 5-outlier dependency (the top-5 winners carry the realized edge — live figures in the 📊 ROI Re-baseline panel on the Strategy tab, regenerated each report run), and capital growth over time. Read it as "current run-rate extrapolated", not "expected return".

⚠ Error Log — 6 operational errors, −$248.79 all-time (excluded from all statistics)

Date	Symbol	Finding	Side / Shares	Open → Close	Loss $	Commissions	Description
2026-07-30 09:30 → 2026-07-30 11:47	VIRT	#352	SHORT 77	$54.46 → $57.53	$-237.09	$0.37	Duplicate queued exit orders: 8 pre-market instant-exit cycles each placed LIMIT+MARKET sell pairs; NYSE queued them until 09:30 ET (Error 399); 7 surviving MARKET orders (11 shares each) filled in the same second at the open at $54.49 against a flat book -> naked short. Flattened on operator instruction: BUY 77 MKT @ $57.53. avg_open includes the 7 sell legs commissions (IBKR avgCost); commissions field = close leg only. NOT a strategy trade; excluded from all strategy statistics by construction.
2026-07-28 15:58	SBUX	#349	LONG 6	$103.11 → $103.10	$-0.78	$0.72	Finding #349 (Jul 28, 2026): born-dead trade from the earnings-date war — the position was entered with its scheduled exit already 5.5h in the past, so it closed 20 seconds after open; never a viable trade. Gross -$0.06 + $0.7169 commissions = -$0.78 net. Moved out of strategy stats per operator decision #353 (trading_positions id 203 + trade_audit_log id 170 relabeled error:born_dead_schedule_349; original exit_reason was scheduled_exit).
2026-02-09 19:00	ON	#178	SHORT 3	—	unquantified	—	Finding #178 (Feb 10, 2026): excess-share recovery legs — the exit oversold by 3 shares, leaving the account briefly SHORT 3 ON; the extra shares were recovered manually. Dollar impact UNQUANTIFIED: the legs were never recorded in the DB (quantifiable from IBKR Flex on demand). Placeholder entry per #353; realized_loss 0.00 by convention for unquantified entries.
2026-02-02 19:00	PFE	#109	SHORT 108	—	unquantified	—	Finding #109 (Feb 3, 2026): exit-retry spiral briefly took the account SHORT -108 PFE; the unwind legs were never recorded in the DB — dollar impact UNQUANTIFIED (only the corrected strategy trade -$7.20 is in trade_audit_log). Placeholder entry per #353; realized_loss 0.00 by convention for unquantified entries.
2026-01-30 01:29 → 2026-01-30 07:19	XOM	#89	SHORT 4	$137.18 → $137.89	$-2.84	—	Finding #89/#94 (Jan 30, 2026): residual XOM short left behind by the exit engine, closed at -$2.84 (trading_positions id 53; trade_audit_log id 19). Already excluded from strategy stats via the "Added via reconciliation" note filter; backfilled into the error ledger per #353.
2026-01-29 09:38 → 2026-01-30 13:50	V	#83	LONG 2	$328.52 → $324.48	$-8.08	—	Finding #83 (Jan 29-30, 2026): service-restart duplicate entry order created a 2x V position; the orphan leg was closed via reconciliation (trading_positions id 49, exit_reason reconciliation:orphaned_position, -$8.08). Already excluded from strategy stats by the reconciliation:% filter; backfilled into the error ledger per #353 so all operational error losses live in one place.

📈 P&L Progression — launch to date cumulative per closed trade · gross vs NET · strategy changes marked

Cumulative NET P&L (after commissions + financing) Cumulative gross price P&L ⬇ markers = production strategy changes (hover for finding)

🧭 Performance by rule era

Era (rules in force)	Window	Trades	NET P&L	NET / trade	Win rate

Attribution caveat: era comparisons are OBSERVATIONAL — they mix rule effects with market-regime effects (notably the Polymarket volume collapse from Mar 2026, Finding #279) and small per-era samples. The causal per-rule estimates come from the capacity-aware simulator on the Strategy Analysis tab: $1k gate +$6.61/wk (#314.b) · flat-25% sizing +$7.40/wk (#314.f) · downtrend-LONG skip −$136 avoided on its historical bucket (#304). Rules that were evaluated and kept unchanged (regime classifier #318, depth gate #319) and the RuleB retraction (#330) don't appear as markers because they changed no production behavior.

📈 Win/Loss Analysis

Winning Trades 85

Losing Trades 130

Average Win $36.65 (+6.08%)

Average Loss $-22.66 (-3.43%)

Best Trade $488.94

Worst Trade $-282.10

🎯 Direction Analysis

Long Trades 192

Long Win Rate 39.6%

Short Trades 23

Short Win Rate 39.1%

⏰ Timing Analysis

BMO Trades 140

BMO Win Rate 47.1%

AMC Trades 74

AMC Win Rate 25.7%

Total Capital (Closed + Open) $135,345

📋 Complete Trade Log 215 trades • Click column headers to sort

Date ↕	Symbol ↕	Dir	Timing	Conviction ↕	Entry	Exit	Shares	Position	P&L ↕	P&L %	Slippage	Fees	Order Type	MCap	Exit Reason	Comments / Analysis
2026-10-14	BLK	LONG	BMO	72%	$1068.51 2026-10-13 15:58	$1085.94 2026-10-14 10:31	2	$2,137 21.9%	$+34.86	+1.63%	0.160%	$0.75	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	Small profit. Consider position sizing.
2026-10-14	MS	LONG	BMO	84%	$186.41 2026-10-13 15:58	$186.75 2026-10-14 07:33	13	$2,423 24.8%	$+4.42	+0.18%	0.020%	$0.76	lim/lim	large	⚡ Instant Exit (Earnings Miss)	Small profit. Consider position sizing.
2026-10-13	BAC	LONG	BMO	72%	$54.07 2026-10-13 15:58	$52.41 2026-10-13 17:02	45	$2,433 24.9%	$-74.70	-3.07%	0.076%	$0.35	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	\| Stop loss filled. Recovered via execution ledger: $52.41
2026-10-13	UNTY	LONG	BMO	88%	$55.47 2026-10-12 15:58	$56.15 2026-10-13 10:31	43	$2,385 24.4%	$+29.03	+1.22%	0.640%	$0.77	lim/lim	small	📅 Scheduled Exit	Small profit. Consider position sizing.
2026-10-13	WFC	LONG	BMO	86%	$83.09 2026-10-12 15:58	$82.42 2026-10-13 06:38	29	$2,410 24.7%	$-19.42	-0.81%	0.010%	$0.76	lim/lim	large	⚡ Instant Exit (Earnings Miss)	Minor loss. Spread/slippage impact.
2026-10-09	DAL	SHORT	BMO	28%	$82.09 2026-10-08 15:58	$80.87 2026-10-09 10:31	29	$2,381 24.5%	$+35.29	+1.49%	0.040%	$0.76	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Small profit. Consider position sizing.
2026-10-08	PEP	LONG	BMO	86%	$123.67 2026-10-07 15:58	$126.63 2026-10-08 10:31	19	$2,350 24.3%	$+56.24	+2.39%	0.030%	$0.81	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	Good entry. Strategy worked as expected.
2026-10-01	ACN	LONG	BMO	72%	$183.31 2026-09-30 15:58	$224.06 2026-10-01 10:31	12	$2,200 23.9%	$+488.94	+22.23%	0.070%	$0.76	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	Strong conviction paid off. Excellent timing.
2026-09-30	FDS	LONG	BMO	84%	$258.63 2026-09-29 15:58	$265.18 2026-09-30 10:31	8	$2,069 22.6%	$+52.40	+2.53%	0.500%	$0.35	lim/lim	small	📅 Scheduled Exit	Good entry. Strategy worked as expected.
2026-09-23	CBRL	LONG	BMO	71%	$45.83 2026-09-22 15:58	$46.93 2026-09-23 10:31	49	$2,246 24.7%	$+53.92	+2.40%	0.070%	$0.78	lim/lim	small	📅 Scheduled Exit	Good entry. Strategy worked as expected.
2026-09-17	LEN	SHORT	AMC	28%	$80.62 2026-09-16 10:34	$79.28 2026-09-17 15:56	28	$2,257 25.0%	$+37.33	+1.66%	0.010%	$0.76	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Small profit. Consider position sizing.
2026-09-14	CBRL	LONG	BMO	72%	$49.40 2026-09-11 15:58	$50.52 2026-09-14 10:31	22	$1,087 12.1%	$+24.75	+2.28%	0.170%	$0.74	lim/lim	small	📅 Scheduled Exit	Good entry. Strategy worked as expected.
2026-09-11	KR	LONG	BMO	85%	$56.90 2026-09-10 15:58	$54.55 2026-09-11 07:13	40	$2,276 25.0%	$-94.00	-4.13%	0.010%	$0.77	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-09-10	ORCL	LONG	AMC	79%	$158.43 2026-09-10 10:34	$153.68 2026-09-10 15:51	14	$2,218 24.2%	$-66.47	-3.00%	0.060%	$0.73	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-09-09	KFY	LONG	BMO	75%	$81.76 2026-09-08 15:58	$77.26 2026-09-09 09:50	28	$2,289 24.6%	$-126.00	-5.50%	0.040%	$0.85	lim/STP	small	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Stop-loss triggered. Review entry conditions.
2026-09-03	CPB	LONG	BMO	89%	$23.80 2026-09-02 15:58	$22.71 2026-09-03 07:20	99	$2,356 25.0%	$-107.91	-4.58%	0.100%	$0.76	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-27	MRVL	LONG	AMC	82%	$245.92 2026-08-27 10:34	$235.95 2026-08-27 16:05	9	$2,213 23.3%	$-89.73	-4.05%	0.040%	$0.78	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-27	DG	LONG	BMO	82%	$123.10 2026-08-26 15:58	$129.52 2026-08-27 10:31	20	$2,462 24.9%	$+128.40	+5.22%	0.050%	$0.77	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Strong conviction paid off. Excellent timing.
2026-08-27	BBW	LONG	BMO	84%	$39.21 2026-08-26 15:58	$34.66 2026-08-27 06:52	62	$2,431 24.6%	$-282.10	-11.60%	0.030%	$0.36	lim/STP	small	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Finding #477: gross_pnl/net_pnl_after_financing -121.52 -> -282.10 (stop stamp -> broker fill)
2026-08-26	HPQ	LONG	AMC	78%	$29.45 2026-08-26 10:34	$28.23 2026-08-26 16:17	82	$2,415 24.7%	$-100.86	-4.18%	0.660%	$0.65	lim/lim	mid	⚡ Instant Exit (Stop Timeout Escalation)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-26	BBWI	LONG	BMO	73%	$17.60 2026-08-25 15:58	$16.60 2026-08-26 07:28	142	$2,499 24.9%	$-142.00	-5.68%	0.000%	$0.91	lim/STP	small	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Stop-loss triggered. Review entry conditions.
2026-08-25	BOX	LONG	AMC	84%	$33.34 2026-08-25 10:34	$31.37 2026-08-25 16:05	75	$2,500 24.9%	$-147.75	-5.91%	0.030%	$1.02	lim/STP	small	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Stop-loss triggered. Review entry conditions.
2026-08-20	BABA	SHORT	BMO	20%	$128.64 2026-08-19 15:58	$124.19 2026-08-20 10:32	4	$515 20.9%	$+17.76	+3.46%	0.060%	$0.71	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	Good entry. Strategy worked as expected.
2026-08-20	DE	LONG	BMO	83%	$580.69 2026-08-19 15:58	$621.82 2026-08-20 10:31	1	$581 23.6%	$+41.13	+7.08%	0.150%	$0.71	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	Strong conviction paid off. Excellent timing.
2026-08-20	WMT	LONG	BMO	76%	$114.22 2026-08-19 15:58	$110.63 2026-08-20 07:01	5	$571 23.2%	$-17.95	-3.14%	0.000%	$0.71	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-19	ADI	LONG	BMO	88%	$375.01 2026-08-18 15:58	$377.94 2026-08-19 10:32	1	$375 15.5%	$+2.92	+0.78%	0.130%	$0.71	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Small profit. Consider position sizing.
2026-08-19	EL	LONG	BMO	93%	$84.43 2026-08-18 15:58	$98.20 2026-08-19 10:32	7	$591 24.4%	$+96.42	+16.32%	0.090%	$0.72	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Strong conviction paid off. Excellent timing.
2026-08-19	VIK	LONG	BMO	89%	$100.00 2026-08-17 15:58	$97.82 2026-08-19 10:31	6	$600 24.7%	$-13.08	-2.18%	0.160%	$0.72	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-19	DY	LONG	BMO	86%	$414.30 2026-08-18 15:58	$398.47 2026-08-19 10:03	1	$414 17.1%	$-15.91	-3.82%	0.310%	$0.71	lim/lim	mid	⚡ Instant Exit (Stop Timeout Escalation)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-19	LOW	LONG	BMO	92%	$216.00 2026-08-18 15:58	$209.50 2026-08-19 06:11	2	$432 17.8%	$-13.00	-3.01%	0.000%	$0.72	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-19	TGT	LONG	BMO	89%	$152.35 2026-08-18 15:58	$145.77 2026-08-19 06:03	3	$457 18.9%	$-19.74	-4.32%	0.030%	$0.71	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-18	HD	LONG	BMO	76%	$338.27 2026-08-17 15:58	$340.21 2026-08-18 10:31	1	$338 13.9%	$+1.94	+0.57%	0.040%	$0.71	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	Small profit. Consider position sizing.
2026-08-14	NMAX	LONG	AMC	74%	$9.06 2026-08-13 10:34	$10.86 2026-08-14 15:56	64	$580 24.9%	$+115.20	+19.87%	0.020%	$0.75	lim/lim	small	📅 Scheduled Exit	Strong conviction paid off. Excellent timing.
2026-08-13	AMAT	LONG	AMC	94%	$558.12 2026-08-13 10:34	$541.34 2026-08-13 15:34	1	$558 23.9%	$-16.78	-3.01%	0.020%	$0.71	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-12	CSCO	LONG	AMC	92%	$123.44 2026-08-12 10:34	$119.70 2026-08-12 16:26	4	$494 21.0%	$-14.96	-3.03%	0.020%	$0.72	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-07	REAL	LONG	AMC	79%	$12.35 2026-08-06 10:34	$12.29 2026-08-07 15:56	49	$605 24.9%	$-2.92	-0.48%	0.040%	$0.74	lim/lim	small	📅 Scheduled Exit	Minor loss. Spread/slippage impact.
2026-08-06	AKAM	LONG	AMC	94%	$120.48 2026-08-06 10:34	$113.36 2026-08-06 16:01	5	$602 24.8%	$-35.63	-5.91%	0.140%	$0.71	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Stop-loss triggered. Review entry conditions.
2026-08-06	MCHP	LONG	AMC	80%	$79.41 2026-08-06 10:34	$75.98 2026-08-06 15:06	7	$556 22.9%	$-23.94	-4.31%	0.351%	$0.72	lim/lim	mid	🛑 Instant Exit (Stop Loss Backup)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-06	NET	LONG	AMC	91%	$291.08 2026-08-06 10:34	$282.17 2026-08-06 14:55	2	$582 24.0%	$-17.82	-3.06%	0.130%	$0.71	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-06	FTDR	LONG	BMO	78%	$76.36 2026-08-05 15:58	$86.29 2026-08-06 10:32	7	$535 23.2%	$+69.51	+13.00%	0.380%	$0.72	lim/lim	small	📅 Scheduled Exit	Strong conviction paid off. Excellent timing.
2026-08-06	RL	LONG	BMO	92%	$380.75 2026-08-05 15:58	$406.61 2026-08-06 10:32	1	$381 16.5%	$+25.86	+6.79%	0.180%	$0.71	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Strong conviction paid off. Excellent timing.
2026-08-06	USFD	LONG	BMO	72%	$100.58 2026-08-05 15:58	$106.79 2026-08-06 10:32	5	$503 21.8%	$+31.05	+6.17%	0.250%	$0.71	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Strong conviction paid off. Excellent timing.
2026-08-05	DIS	LONG	BMO	90%	$98.05 2026-08-04 15:58	$100.89 2026-08-05 10:31	6	$588 24.7%	$+17.04	+2.90%	0.010%	$0.72	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	Good entry. Strategy worked as expected.
2026-08-05	KHC	LONG	BMO	87%	$26.55 2026-08-04 15:58	$25.48 2026-08-05 09:46	22	$584 24.6%	$-23.62	-4.03%	0.000%	$0.73	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-05	CVS	LONG	BMO	88%	$104.23 2026-08-04 15:58	$100.64 2026-08-05 08:57	5	$521 21.9%	$-17.95	-3.44%	0.010%	$0.71	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-05	CRCL	LONG	BMO	70%	$63.84 2026-08-04 15:58	$61.25 2026-08-05 08:36	9	$575 24.2%	$-23.31	-4.06%	0.030%	$0.72	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-05	UBER	LONG	BMO	88%	$72.11 2026-08-04 15:58	$69.75 2026-08-05 06:57	8	$577 24.3%	$-18.96	-3.29%	0.010%	$0.72	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-03	TSN	LONG	BMO	88%	$57.75 2026-07-31 15:58	$55.80 2026-08-03 07:56	5	$289 12.0%	$-9.75	-3.38%	0.000%	$0.71	lim/lim	mid	⚡ Instant Exit (Earnings Miss)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-08-03	MAR	LONG	BMO	86%	$373.69 2026-07-31 15:58	$356.25 2026-08-03 07:02	1	$374 15.5%	$-17.44	-4.67%	0.020%	$0.71	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-07-31	CBOE	LONG	BMO	92%	$297.61 2026-07-30 15:58	$303.80 2026-07-31 10:32	2	$595 24.6%	$+12.29	+2.08%	0.050%	$0.71	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Good entry. Strategy worked as expected.
2026-07-31	CL	LONG	BMO	94%	$91.61 2026-07-30 15:58	$90.80 2026-07-31 10:32	6	$550 22.7%	$-4.92	-0.89%	0.010%	$0.72	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Minor loss. Spread/slippage impact.
2026-07-31	BEN	LONG	BMO	84%	$33.25 2026-07-30 15:58	$33.80 2026-07-31 10:32	18	$598 24.7%	$+9.99	+1.67%	0.040%	$0.72	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Small profit. Consider position sizing.
2026-07-31	CVX	LONG	BMO	82%	$192.59 2026-07-30 15:58	$192.74 2026-07-31 10:31	3	$578 23.9%	$+0.45	+0.08%	0.060%	$0.71	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	Small profit. Consider position sizing.
2026-07-31	MRNA	LONG	BMO	84%	$57.88 2026-07-30 15:58	$54.65 2026-07-31 07:00	10	$579 23.9%	$-32.30	-5.58%	0.020%	$0.75	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Stop-loss triggered. Review entry conditions.
2026-07-30	TDAY	LONG	BMO	73%	$8.79 2026-07-29 15:58	$8.59 2026-07-30 10:32	79	$695 25.0%	$-17.16	-2.44%	0.120%	$0.76	lim/lim	small	📅 Scheduled Exit	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-07-30	KKR	LONG	BMO	83%	$99.25 2026-07-29 15:58	$98.47 2026-07-30 10:31	6	$596 21.4%	$-4.68	-0.79%	0.210%	$0.72	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Minor loss. Spread/slippage impact.
2026-07-30	CI	LONG	BMO	86%	$297.74 2026-07-29 15:58	$284.50 2026-07-30 07:33	2	$595 21.4%	$-26.48	-4.45%	0.020%	$0.71	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-07-30	H	LONG	BMO	84%	$186.24 2026-07-29 15:58	$180.03 2026-07-30 07:09	3	$559 20.1%	$-18.68	-3.33%	0.010%	$0.72	lim/lim	mid	⚡ Instant Exit (False Detection)	SF repair #351 (Jul 30, 2026): original exit_reason=instant_exit:earnings_miss, original actual_eps=...
2026-07-30	BUD	LONG	BMO	90%	$84.87 2026-07-29 15:58	$82.31 2026-07-30 07:02	8	$679 24.4%	$-20.48	-3.02%	0.012%	$0.35	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	\| Stop loss filled. Recovered via execution ledger: $82.31
2026-07-30	VIRT	LONG	BMO	79%	$58.02 2026-07-29 15:58	$55.60 2026-07-30 07:01	11	$638 23.0%	$-26.73	-4.19%	0.030%	$0.72	lim/lim	mid	⚡ Instant Exit (Earnings Miss)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-07-29	WING	LONG	BMO	86%	$134.73 2026-07-28 15:58	$145.17 2026-07-29 10:32	4	$539 20.1%	$+41.59	+7.75%	0.130%	$0.71	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Strong conviction paid off. Excellent timing.
2026-07-29	GRMN	LONG	BMO	82%	$253.17 2026-07-28 15:58	$296.65 2026-07-29 10:32	2	$506 18.9%	$+86.96	+17.17%	0.230%	$0.71	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Strong conviction paid off. Excellent timing.
2026-07-29	ARCC	SHORT	BMO	24%	$19.04 2026-07-28 15:58	$18.96 2026-07-29 10:32	35	$666 24.9%	$+2.76	+0.42%	0.030%	$0.74	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Small profit. Consider position sizing.
2026-07-29	CBRE	SHORT	BMO	28%	$147.79 2026-07-28 15:58	$150.41 2026-07-29 10:32	4	$591 22.1%	$-10.49	-1.77%	0.070%	$0.72	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Minor loss. Spread/slippage impact.
2026-07-29	PG	LONG	BMO	90%	$149.60 2026-07-28 15:58	$144.75 2026-07-29 07:02	4	$598 22.3%	$-19.44	-3.25%	0.020%	$0.71	lim/lim	large	⚡ Instant Exit (Stop Timeout Escalation)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-07-28	SBUX	LONG	BMO	92%	$103.66 2026-07-27 15:58	$105.14 2026-07-28 10:32	6	$622 22.9%	$+8.81	+1.43%	0.050%	$0.72	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Small profit. Consider position sizing.
2026-07-28	KO	LONG	BMO	92%	$84.05 2026-07-27 15:58	$90.04 2026-07-28 10:31	8	$672 24.8%	$+47.92	+7.13%	0.020%	$0.72	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	Strong conviction paid off. Excellent timing.
2026-07-28	HLT	LONG	BMO	92%	$330.64 2026-07-27 15:58	$315.00 2026-07-28 09:19	2	$661 24.4%	$-31.28	-4.73%	0.030%	$0.71	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-07-28	UPS	LONG	BMO	76%	$112.90 2026-07-27 15:58	$109.47 2026-07-28 08:59	6	$677 24.9%	$-20.58	-3.04%	0.020%	$0.71	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-07-28	RCL	LONG	BMO	84%	$304.69 2026-07-27 15:58	$286.00 2026-07-28 06:31	2	$609 22.4%	$-37.38	-6.13%	0.010%	$0.71	lim/lim	mid	⚡ Instant Exit (Stop Timeout Escalation)	Stop-loss triggered. Review entry conditions.
2026-07-23	IMAX	LONG	AMC	79%	$43.83 2026-07-23 10:34	$41.61 2026-07-23 10:48	15	$657 23.9%	$-33.30	-5.07%	0.180%	$0.77	lim/STP	small	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Stop-loss triggered. Review entry conditions.
2026-07-23	HON	LONG	BMO	92%	$233.18 2026-07-22 15:58	$247.64 2026-07-23 10:31	2	$466 16.9%	$+28.92	+6.20%	0.000%	$0.71	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	Strong conviction paid off. Excellent timing.
2026-07-23	BX	SHORT	BMO	20%	$122.79 2026-07-22 15:58	$128.14 2026-07-23 06:56	5	$614 22.3%	$-26.80	-4.36%	0.000%	$0.73	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-07-22	TSLA	LONG	AMC	74%	$377.43 2026-07-22 10:34	$365.86 2026-07-22 16:04	1	$377 13.7%	$-11.57	-3.07%	0.010%	$0.71	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-07-22	CME	LONG	BMO	78%	$237.61 2026-07-21 15:58	$253.69 2026-07-22 10:31	2	$475 17.4%	$+32.16	+6.77%	0.110%	$0.71	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Strong conviction paid off. Excellent timing.
2026-07-16	NFLX	LONG	AMC	76%	$73.14 2026-07-16 10:34	$70.91 2026-07-16 16:05	9	$658 24.0%	$-20.07	-3.05%	0.000%	$0.75	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-07-16	KMI	LONG	AMC	86%	$32.28 2026-07-15 10:34	$32.59 2026-07-16 15:56	21	$678 24.4%	$+6.40	+0.94%	0.040%	$0.73	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Small profit. Consider position sizing.
2026-07-16	USB	LONG	BMO	82%	$62.98 2026-07-15 15:58	$63.76 2026-07-16 10:31	10	$630 22.8%	$+7.70	+1.22%	0.060%	$0.72	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Small profit. Consider position sizing.
2026-07-16	TSM	LONG	BMO	92%	$420.56 2026-07-15 15:58	$407.21 2026-07-16 04:03	1	$421 15.2%	$-13.35	-3.17%	0.000%	$0.71	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-07-15	UAL	LONG	AMC	94%	$122.92 2026-07-15 10:34	$117.49 2026-07-15 16:00	5	$615 22.1%	$-27.15	-4.42%	0.030%	$0.72	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-07-15	CTAS	LONG	BMO	81%	$184.48 2026-07-14 15:58	$195.76 2026-07-15 10:31	3	$553 20.0%	$+33.84	+6.11%	0.180%	$0.71	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	Strong conviction paid off. Excellent timing.
2026-07-15	JNJ	LONG	BMO	93%	$253.63 2026-07-14 15:58	$246.02 2026-07-15 09:03	2	$507 18.3%	$-15.22	-3.00%	0.070%	$0.71	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-07-15	PNC	LONG	BMO	94%	$251.43 2026-07-14 15:58	$245.86 2026-07-15 06:34	2	$503 18.2%	$-11.14	-2.22%	0.370%	$0.72	lim/lim	mid	⚡ Instant Exit (False Detection)	\| #342 correction (Jul 15, 2026): detection-time PRNewswire parse extracted the dividend ($2.00/sha...
2026-07-14	BAC	LONG	BMO	80%	$59.41 2026-07-13 15:58	$60.90 2026-07-14 10:32	11	$654 24.2%	$+16.23	+2.48%	0.010%	$0.72	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	Finding #339: exit commission backfilled from position_closed audit log (close ran pre-fix) \| Findin...
2026-07-14	GS	LONG	BMO	94%	$1046.04 2026-07-13 15:58	$1128.70 2026-07-14 10:32	1	$1,046 38.7%	$+82.66	+7.90%	0.000%	$0.72	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	Finding #339: exit commission backfilled from position_closed audit log (close ran pre-fix) \| Findin...
2026-07-14	C	LONG	BMO	89%	$140.47 2026-07-13 15:58	$143.25 2026-07-14 10:31	4	$562 20.8%	$+11.12	+1.98%	0.010%	$0.71	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	Finding #339: exit commission backfilled from position_closed audit log (close ran pre-fix) \| Findin...
2026-07-14	WFC	LONG	BMO	78%	$87.44 2026-07-13 15:58	$84.50 2026-07-14 09:27	7	$612 22.6%	$-20.58	-3.36%	0.376%	$0.72	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Finding #339: exit commission backfilled from IBKR commissionReport log (primary close persist faile...
2026-07-14	JPM	LONG	BMO	86%	$334.74 2026-07-13 15:58	$324.37 2026-07-14 07:07	2	$669 24.8%	$-20.74	-3.10%	0.112%	$0.71	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Finding #339: exit commission backfilled from IBKR commissionReport log (primary close persist faile...
2026-06-18	SWBI	LONG	AMC	74%	$13.88 2026-06-17 10:34	$16.06 2026-06-18 15:56	29	$403 14.9%	$+63.27	+15.72%	0.080%	$2.00	lim/lim	small	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-06-18	KR	LONG	BMO	88%	$61.89 2026-06-17 15:58	$60.02 2026-06-18 06:52	9	$557 20.7%	$-16.83	-3.02%	0.000%	$1.00	lim/-	mid	⚡ Instant Exit (Earnings Miss)	\| Exit filled. Recovered via execution ledger: $60.02 \| [#328 CORRECTION] True exit was instant_exi...
2026-06-18	ACN	LONG	BMO	90%	$156.32 2026-06-17 15:58	$151.10 2026-06-18 06:39	5	$782 29.1%	$-26.10	-3.34%	0.010%	$2.00	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-06-11	ADBE	LONG	AMC	79%	$223.30 2026-06-11 10:34	$216.42 2026-06-11 16:06	3	$670 24.7%	$-20.64	-3.08%	0.080%	$2.00	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-06-10	CASY	LONG	AMC	70%	$756.28 2026-06-09 10:34	$906.58 2026-06-10 15:56	1	$756 29.5%	$+150.30	+19.87%	0.050%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-06-09	SJM	LONG	BMO	84%	$101.91 2026-06-08 15:58	$113.47 2026-06-09 10:31	5	$510 20.3%	$+57.78	+11.34%	0.080%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-06-04	LULU	LONG	AMC	79%	$126.64 2026-06-04 10:34	$120.26 2026-06-04 16:05	4	$507 20.0%	$-25.54	-5.04%	0.070%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-05-28	HPQ	LONG	AMC	80%	$24.61 2026-05-27 10:34	$25.04 2026-05-28 15:56	22	$541 21.3%	$+9.51	+1.76%	0.050%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-05-07	APP	LONG	AMC	87%	$460.69 2026-05-06 10:34	$498.63 2026-05-07 15:56	1	$461 18.5%	$+37.94	+8.24%	0.150%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-05-07	MCD	LONG	BMO	78%	$283.77 2026-05-06 15:58	$285.26 2026-05-07 10:31	2	$568 22.7%	$+2.98	+0.53%	0.020%	$2.00	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-05-06	KHC	LONG	BMO	89%	$22.54 2026-05-05 15:58	$23.19 2026-05-06 10:31	24	$541 21.8%	$+15.62	+2.89%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-05-01	MRNA	SHORT	BMO	14%	$45.95 2026-04-30 15:58	$48.00 2026-05-01 06:30	12	$551 22.0%	$-24.53	-4.44%	0.010%	$2.01	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-30	LLY	LONG	BMO	85%	$851.54 2026-04-29 15:58	$925.47 2026-04-30 10:31	1	$852 34.8%	$+73.93	+8.68%	0.060%	$2.00	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-29	MSFT	LONG	AMC	87%	$425.49 2026-04-29 10:34	$412.52 2026-04-29 16:12	1	$425 17.4%	$-12.97	-3.05%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-29	SOFI	LONG	BMO	86%	$18.36 2026-04-28 15:58	$17.56 2026-04-29 07:01	29	$532 21.3%	$-23.20	-4.36%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-29	HUM	LONG	BMO	76%	$230.01 2026-04-28 15:58	$218.16 2026-04-29 06:02	2	$460 18.4%	$-23.72	-5.16%	0.010%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-28	SPGI	LONG	BMO	87%	$437.24 2026-04-27 15:58	$449.46 2026-04-28 10:31	1	$437 17.6%	$+12.22	+2.80%	0.130%	$2.00	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-27	VZ	LONG	BMO	84%	$46.44 2026-04-24 15:58	$46.95 2026-04-27 09:17	8	$371 14.9%	$+4.08	+1.10%	0.010%	$2.01	lim/lim	large	⚡ 🐛 BUG-EXIT · Instant Exit (False Detection)	BUG_EXIT (Finding #264): Yahoo $1.20 GAAP scrape contradicted Polymarket YES=99.95% (BEAT). Trader a...
2026-04-23	TXN	LONG	AMC	71%	$235.80 2026-04-22 10:34	$281.73 2026-04-23 15:56	2	$472 19.7%	$+91.86	+19.48%	0.030%	$2.00	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-23	AAL	LONG	BMO	80%	$11.51 2026-04-22 15:58	$11.99 2026-04-23 10:32	42	$483 20.2%	$+20.34	+4.21%	0.080%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-23	BX	SHORT	BMO	26%	$129.88 2026-04-22 15:58	$123.65 2026-04-23 10:31	5	$649 27.1%	$+31.10	+4.80%	0.100%	$2.01	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-23	LMT	LONG	BMO	81%	$555.80 2026-04-22 15:58	$531.39 2026-04-23 06:30	1	$556 23.2%	$-24.42	-4.39%	0.020%	$2.00	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-22	TSLA	SHORT	AMC	20%	$391.74 2026-04-22 10:34	$404.69 2026-04-22 16:04	1	$392 16.4%	$-12.95	-3.31%	0.297%	$2.01	lim/lim	large	🛑 Instant Exit (Stop Loss Backup)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-22	T	LONG	BMO	75%	$25.93 2026-04-21 15:58	$25.14 2026-04-22 08:45	28	$726 29.8%	$-22.40	-3.08%	0.020%	$2.00	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-22	BA	SHORT	BMO	25%	$219.37 2026-04-21 15:58	$225.69 2026-04-22 07:30	3	$658 27.0%	$-19.01	-2.88%	0.000%	$2.01	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-17	ALLY	LONG	BMO	84%	$41.92 2026-04-16 15:58	$44.58 2026-04-17 10:31	12	$503 20.9%	$+31.92	+6.35%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-16	CFG	LONG	BMO	82%	$65.21 2026-04-15 15:58	$64.65 2026-04-16 10:31	8	$522 21.6%	$-4.48	-0.86%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-15	PNC	LONG	BMO	72%	$220.71 2026-04-14 15:58	$223.34 2026-04-15 10:31	2	$441 18.3%	$+5.26	+1.19%	0.090%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-14	BLK	LONG	BMO	83%	$1024.49 2026-04-13 15:58	$1057.23 2026-04-14 10:31	1	$1,024 42.8%	$+32.73	+3.19%	0.010%	$2.00	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-14	JPM	LONG	BMO	89%	$313.18 2026-04-13 15:58	$303.68 2026-04-14 06:44	2	$626 26.1%	$-19.00	-3.03%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-04-08	DAL	LONG	BMO	77%	$65.74 2026-04-07 15:58	$70.36 2026-04-08 10:31	7	$460 19.5%	$+32.34	+7.03%	0.050%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-31	NKE	LONG	AMC	86%	$52.30 2026-03-31 10:34	$50.70 2026-03-31 16:27	13	$680 28.4%	$-22.78	-3.35%	0.020%	$2.00	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-31	FDS	LONG	BMO	77%	$204.68 2026-03-30 15:58	$221.46 2026-03-31 10:31	1	$205 8.6%	$+16.78	+8.20%	0.140%	$2.00	lim/lim	small	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-25	PAYX	LONG	BMO	85%	$90.48 2026-03-24 15:58	$89.93 2026-03-25 10:31	5	$452 18.8%	$-2.75	-0.61%	0.010%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-24	GME	LONG	AMC	80%	$22.59 2026-03-24 10:34	$21.50 2026-03-24 16:02	23	$520 21.6%	$-25.03	-4.82%	0.010%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-19	PDD	LONG	BMO	70%	$100.71 2026-03-18 15:58	$97.69 2026-03-19 10:15	7	$705 28.7%	$-21.17	-3.00%	0.010%	$2.00	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-19	BABA	LONG	BMO	74%	$134.59 2026-03-18 15:58	$128.28 2026-03-19 05:30	5	$673 27.4%	$-31.55	-4.69%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-18	GIS	SHORT	BMO	16%	$38.73 2026-03-17 15:58	$38.45 2026-03-18 10:31	13	$503 20.5%	$+3.60	+0.72%	0.040%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-11	ORCL	LONG	AMC	78%	$147.93 2026-03-09 10:34	$163.11 2026-03-11 15:56	2	$296 6.0%	$+30.37	+10.26%	0.020%	$2.00	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-09	KSS	LONG	BMO	86%	$14.86 2026-03-09 15:58	$14.03 2026-03-09 17:04	29	$431 17.6%	$-24.07	-5.59%	0.030%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-06	GPRO	SHORT	AMC	14%	$1.05 2026-03-05 10:34	$0.78 2026-03-06 16:29	397	$419 18.1%	$+111.08	+26.52%	0.480%	$2.06	lim/LMT	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit (Manual After Hours)	\| MANUAL CLOSE 2026-03-06: Scheduled exit failed due to Finding 199 duplicate prevention bug. Close...
2026-03-06	SWBI	LONG	AMC	72%	$11.90 2026-03-05 10:34	$13.91 2026-03-06 15:56	35	$416 18.0%	$+70.35	+16.89%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-06	M	LONG	BMO	82%	$19.21 2026-03-04 15:58	$18.66 2026-03-06 09:30	21	$403 17.5%	$-11.45	-2.84%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-05	STUB	SHORT	AMC	20%	$10.35 2026-03-04 10:34	$8.90 2026-03-05 15:57	40	$414 18.1%	$+57.77	+13.96%	0.350%	$2.01	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-05	MRVL	LONG	AMC	92%	$78.15 2026-03-05 10:34	$75.79 2026-03-05 12:50	5	$391 16.9%	$-11.77	-3.01%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-05	IOT	LONG	AMC	92%	$29.83 2026-03-05 10:34	$28.94 2026-03-05 12:43	13	$388 16.7%	$-11.57	-2.98%	0.030%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-05	BURL	LONG	BMO	87%	$300.88 2026-03-04 15:58	$307.89 2026-03-05 10:31	1	$301 13.1%	$+7.01	+2.33%	0.340%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-05	KR	LONG	BMO	88%	$68.20 2026-03-04 15:58	$66.00 2026-03-05 08:26	6	$409 17.8%	$-13.20	-3.23%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	\| Exit filled. Recovered via execution ledger: $60.02 \| gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332)
2026-03-05	VSCO	LONG	BMO	95%	$60.25 2026-03-04 15:58	$57.27 2026-03-05 07:12	6	$362 15.7%	$-17.88	-4.95%	0.030%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-04	BBWI	LONG	BMO	92%	$22.43 2026-03-03 15:58	$22.02 2026-03-04 10:31	18	$404 17.3%	$-7.38	-1.83%	0.070%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-03	GTLB	LONG	AMC	90%	$25.32 2026-03-03 10:34	$24.56 2026-03-03 16:14	16	$405 17.5%	$-12.16	-3.00%	0.120%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-03	TGT	LONG	BMO	80%	$113.28 2026-03-02 15:58	$116.83 2026-03-03 10:31	3	$340 14.4%	$+10.65	+3.13%	0.150%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-03	MRX	LONG	BMO	84%	$43.77 2026-03-02 15:58	$42.78 2026-03-03 09:30	9	$394 16.6%	$-8.91	-2.26%	0.774%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	🛑 Instant Exit (Stop Loss Backup)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-03	BBY	LONG	BMO	78%	$61.63 2026-03-02 15:58	$59.05 2026-03-03 04:22	6	$370 15.6%	$-15.48	-4.19%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-02	ASAN	LONG	AMC	86%	$7.34 2026-03-02 10:34	$7.00 2026-03-02 16:17	58	$426 17.9%	$-19.68	-4.62%	0.010%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-03-02	MDB	LONG	AMC	93%	$327.63 2026-03-02 10:34	$313.00 2026-03-02 16:05	1	$328 13.8%	$-14.63	-4.47%	0.240%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-27	DELL	LONG	AMC	91%	$121.37 2026-02-26 10:34	$148.01 2026-02-27 15:57	3	$364 15.6%	$+79.93	+21.95%	0.080%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-27	EB	SHORT	AMC	20%	$4.42 2026-02-26 10:34	$4.42 2026-02-27 15:57	95	$419 17.9%	$-0.51	-0.11%	0.220%	$2.02	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-27	REAL	LONG	AMC	71%	$12.04 2026-02-26 10:34	$12.26 2026-02-27 15:56	34	$410 17.5%	$+6.97	+1.70%	0.160%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-26	MNST	LONG	AMC	86%	$85.82 2026-02-26 10:34	$81.25 2026-02-26 16:10	4	$343 14.7%	$-18.28	-5.33%	2.422%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	🛑 Instant Exit (Stop Loss Backup)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-26	SOUN	LONG	AMC	86%	$8.76 2026-02-26 10:34	$8.50 2026-02-26 16:04	47	$412 17.6%	$-12.22	-2.97%	0.110%	$1.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-26	INTU	LONG	AMC	94%	$400.52 2026-02-26 10:34	$388.40 2026-02-26 13:07	1	$401 17.1%	$-12.12	-3.03%	0.020%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-26	NVDA	LONG	AMC	95%	$195.77 2026-02-25 10:34	$191.83 2026-02-26 09:32	3	$587 24.5%	$-11.82	-2.01%	0.010%	$2.00	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-26	TKO	SHORT	AMC	30%	$208.19 2026-02-25 10:34	$217.07 2026-02-26 09:26	2	$416 17.4%	$-17.79	-4.27%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-25	SNOW	SHORT	AMC	5%	$165.87 2026-02-25 10:34	$166.45 2026-02-25 16:01	2	$332 13.8%	$-1.16	-0.35%	0.050%	$1.00	lim/LMT	mid	⚡ Instant Exit (Earnings Beat)	\| REPAIR 2026-02-26: corrected exit data from log evidence. Original DB had 42P18 persist failure. ...
2026-02-25	TTD	LONG	AMC	77%	$25.25 2026-02-25 10:34	$25.06 2026-02-25 16:01	17	$429 17.9%	$-3.22	-0.75%	0.040%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-25	IONQ	LONG	AMC	82%	$34.12 2026-02-25 10:34	$33.73 2026-02-25 15:51	12	$409 17.1%	$-4.73	-1.16%	0.070%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	⚡ Instant Exit (False Detection)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission) \| #344 relabel (Jul 15, 2026)...
2026-02-25	ZM	SHORT	AMC	30%	$85.37 2026-02-25 10:34	$85.74 2026-02-25 10:59	5	$427 17.8%	$-1.84	-0.43%	0.050%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	⚡ Instant Exit (False Detection)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission) \| #344 relabel (Jul 15, 2026)...
2026-02-25	LOW	LONG	BMO	93%	$278.46 2026-02-24 15:58	$267.63 2026-02-25 06:00	2	$557 22.9%	$-21.66	-3.89%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-24	WDAY	LONG	AMC	93%	$132.30 2026-02-24 10:34	$127.67 2026-02-24 16:01	3	$397 16.3%	$-13.89	-3.50%	0.020%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-24	HD	LONG	BMO	84%	$375.45 2026-02-23 15:58	$388.71 2026-02-24 10:31	1	$375 15.3%	$+13.26	+3.53%	0.070%	$2.00	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-24	AS	LONG	BMO	94%	$40.52 2026-02-23 15:58	$39.03 2026-02-24 06:00	10	$405 16.6%	$-15.00	-3.70%	0.722%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	\| Stop loss filled. Recovered via execution ledger: $39.03
2026-02-23	HIMS	LONG	AMC	77%	$15.53 2026-02-23 10:34	$14.86 2026-02-23 19:59	14	$217 8.9%	$-9.38	-4.31%	1.328%	--	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	MANUAL FORENSIC RECONCILIATION (2026-02-24 UTC): IBKR disconnect + heartbeat failure episode observe...
2026-02-20	ED	LONG	AMC	86%	$112.25 2026-02-19 10:34	$109.35 2026-02-20 16:13	2	$224 9.0%	$-5.80	-2.58%	0.020%	$1.00	lim/lim	mid	⚡ Instant Exit (Manual Missed Exit)	MANUAL RECOVERY 2026-02-20: Position manually exited after-hours due missed scheduled exit while tra...
2026-02-20	ICUI	LONG	AMC	92%	$147.04 2026-02-19 10:34	$141.65 2026-02-20 09:36	1	$147 5.9%	$-5.39	-3.67%	0.977%	$1.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	\| Stop loss filled but DB update failed. Recovered via execution ledger: $141.65 \| REPAIR 2026-02-2...
2026-02-19	DBX	LONG	AMC	94%	$24.83 2026-02-19 10:34	$24.00 2026-02-19 17:21	9	$223 8.9%	$-7.47	-3.34%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-19	TXRH	SHORT	AMC	24%	$184.96 2026-02-19 10:34	$191.50 2026-02-19 16:30	1	$185 7.4%	$-6.54	-3.54%	0.110%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-19	AKAM	LONG	AMC	92%	$108.08 2026-02-19 10:34	$103.44 2026-02-19 16:01	2	$216 8.6%	$-9.28	-4.29%	0.070%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-19	EBAY	LONG	AMC	89%	$81.93 2026-02-18 10:34	$84.75 2026-02-19 15:56	2	$164 6.5%	$+5.64	+3.44%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-19	OPEN	SHORT	AMC	13%	$4.57 2026-02-19 10:34	$4.71 2026-02-19 11:30	49	$224 8.9%	$-6.61	-2.95%	0.000%	$2.01	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-19	WMT	LONG	BMO	78%	$126.64 2026-02-18 15:58	$124.04 2026-02-19 06:56	2	$253 10.1%	$-5.20	-2.05%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-18	DASH	SHORT	AMC	28%	$174.85 2026-02-18 10:34	$181.95 2026-02-18 17:00	1	$175 7.0%	$-7.10	-4.06%	1.097%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	🛑 Instant Exit (Stop Loss Backup)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-18	WING	LONG	BMO	87%	$251.21 2026-02-17 15:58	$299.65 2026-02-18 10:32	1	$251 10.3%	$+48.44	+19.28%	0.120%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-18	ADI	LONG	BMO	89%	$338.20 2026-02-17 15:58	$349.54 2026-02-18 10:32	1	$338 13.8%	$+11.34	+3.35%	0.060%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-18	GRMN	LONG	BMO	78%	$217.78 2026-02-17 15:58	$243.57 2026-02-18 10:31	1	$218 8.9%	$+25.79	+11.84%	0.320%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-18	CRL	LONG	BMO	87%	$158.41 2026-02-17 15:58	$150.59 2026-02-18 09:27	1	$158 6.5%	$-7.82	-4.94%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-17	CZR	SHORT	AMC	22%	$17.89 2026-02-17 10:34	$18.44 2026-02-17 11:16	12	$215 8.8%	$-6.59	-3.07%	0.000%	$1.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-12	BUD	LONG	BMO	82%	$77.39 2026-02-11 15:58	$80.53 2026-02-12 14:00	2	$155 6.3%	$+6.27	+4.05%	0.030%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission) \| Stop loss filled. Recovered...
2026-02-11	CSCO	LONG	AMC	92%	$85.44 2026-02-11 10:34	$83.74 2026-02-11 16:05	3	$256 10.4%	$-5.11	-2.00%	0.010%	$1.00	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Minor loss. Spread/slippage impact.
2026-02-11	HLT	LONG	BMO	86%	$324.23 2026-02-10 15:58	$324.97 2026-02-11 10:31	1	$324 13.1%	$+0.74	+0.23%	0.090%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-11	HOOD	LONG	AMC	87%	$87.83 2026-02-10 10:34	$85.20 2026-02-11 09:30	2	$176 7.0%	$-5.26	-2.99%	0.030%	$1.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-02-10	NET	LONG	AMC	82%	$180.37 2026-02-10 10:34	$174.96 2026-02-10 16:08	1	$180 7.2%	$-5.41	-3.00%	0.070%	$1.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-02-10	CRSP	LONG	AMC	72%	$50.39 2026-02-10 10:34	$48.88 2026-02-10 15:52	4	$202 8.1%	$-6.04	-3.00%	0.100%	$1.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-02-10	ON	LONG	AMC	80%	$65.61 2026-02-09 10:34	$66.97 2026-02-10 11:10	3	$197 --	$+4.08	+2.07%	0.030%	$1.00	MKT/lim	Mid	⚡ Instant Exit (False Detection)	Manual recovery: batch_order_manager placed duplicate due to filled_price attribute error. Original ...
2026-02-10	DDOG	LONG	BMO	90%	$114.07 2026-02-09 15:58	$131.29 2026-02-10 10:31	1	$114 4.6%	$+17.22	+15.10%	0.110%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-10	MAR	LONG	BMO	76%	$331.21 2026-02-09 15:58	$337.50 2026-02-10 07:32	1	$331 13.3%	$+6.29	+1.90%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	⚡ Instant Exit (Earnings Miss)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-10	KO	LONG	BMO	86%	$77.99 2026-02-09 15:58	$76.43 2026-02-10 06:55	3	$234 9.4%	$-4.68	-2.00%	0.000%	$1.00	lim/STP	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-02-10	CVS	LONG	BMO	80%	$75.98 2026-02-09 15:58	$73.70 2026-02-10 06:31	2	$152 6.1%	$-4.56	-3.00%	0.000%	$1.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-02-06	MCHP	LONG	AMC	80%	$75.97 2026-02-05 10:34	$73.69 2026-02-06 10:28	2	$152 6.0%	$-4.56	-3.00%	0.030%	$2.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	\| Stop loss filled 2026-02-06 10:28 ET. Stock dropped despite earnings beat. 2 fills of 1 share eac...
2026-02-06	CBOE	LONG	BMO	90%	$275.44 2026-02-05 15:58	$264.54 2026-02-06 09:30	1	$275 10.9%	$-10.90	-3.96%	1.118%	$1.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	\| Stop loss filled at market open 2026-02-06 09:30 ET. Stock gapped down despite earnings beat. Rec...
2026-02-05	RDDT	LONG	AMC	94%	$149.11 2026-02-05 10:34	$144.64 2026-02-05 16:24	1	$149 5.9%	$-4.47	-3.00%	0.010%	$1.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-02-05	AMZN	LONG	AMC	95%	$221.96 2026-02-05 10:34	$208.00 2026-02-05 16:13	1	$222 8.8%	$-13.96	-6.29%	0.030%	$2.00	lim/lim	large	⚡ Instant Exit (Earnings Miss)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-05	CI	LONG	BMO	80%	$272.55 2026-02-04 15:58	$275.28 2026-02-05 09:34	1	$273 10.7%	$+2.73	+1.00%	0.000%	$1.00	lim/LMT	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit (Reconciled)	Small profit. Consider position sizing.
2026-02-05	ICE	LONG	BMO	82%	$164.53 2026-02-04 15:58	$173.44 2026-02-05 09:33	1	$165 6.5%	$+8.91	+5.42%	0.000%	$1.00	lim/LMT	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit (Reconciled)	\| Stop loss filled but DB update failed. Recovered via execution ledger: $173.44
2026-02-05	TW	LONG	BMO	70%	$100.77 2026-02-04 15:58	$102.68 2026-02-05 09:31	2	$202 7.9%	$+3.82	+1.90%	0.000%	$1.00	lim/LMT	mid	📅 Scheduled Exit (Reconciled)	\| Stop loss filled but DB update failed. Recovered via execution ledger: $102.68
2026-02-05	RL	LONG	BMO	90%	$354.29 2026-02-04 15:58	$343.66 2026-02-05 08:06	1	$354 13.9%	$-10.63	-3.00%	0.040%	$1.00	lim/STP	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-02-05	ARES	LONG	BMO	73%	$137.66 2026-02-04 15:58	$130.86 2026-02-05 08:02	1	$138 5.4%	$-6.80	-4.94%	2.000%	$1.00	lim/-	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	\| Stop loss filled but DB update failed. Recovered via execution ledger: $130.86
2026-02-05	COP	LONG	BMO	75%	$107.66 2026-02-04 15:58	$107.11 2026-02-05 07:04	2	$215 8.4%	$-1.10	-0.51%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/lim	large	⚡ Instant Exit (Earnings Miss)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-02-04	CME	LONG	N/A	--	$293.46 2026-02-03 15:58	$289.61 2026-02-04 12:23	1	--	$-3.85	-1.31%	0.000%	$2.00	--	N/A	📅 Scheduled Exit	Minor loss. Spread/slippage impact.
2026-02-04	EFX	LONG	BMO	85%	$174.69 2026-02-03 15:58	$168.71 2026-02-04 09:32	1	$175 6.6%	$-5.98	-3.42%	0.441%	$1.00	lim/-	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	\| Auto-closed via execution ledger: $168.71 on 2026-02-04T14:32:47+00:00
2026-02-04	NYT	LONG	BMO	94%	$72.22 2026-02-03 15:58	$70.00 2026-02-04 07:03	3	$217 8.2%	$-6.69	-3.09%	0.096%	$1.00	lim/-	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	\| Auto-closed via execution ledger: $70.00 on 2026-02-04T12:03:19+00:00
2026-02-03	AMD	LONG	AMC	92%	$249.84 2026-02-03 09:34	$244.84 2026-02-03 09:56	1	$250 9.3%	$-5.00	-2.67%	0.030%	$1.00	lim/-	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	\| RECONCILIATION: Position not found in IBKR. Exit price: $243.18, P&L: $-6.66 (-2.67%). Check IBKR...
2026-02-03	PEP	LONG	BMO	88%	$155.12 2026-02-02 15:58	$155.96 2026-02-03 09:33	2	$310 11.5%	$+1.68	+0.54%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/-	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	\| RECONCILIATION: Position not found in IBKR. Exit price: $158.98, P&L: $7.72 (2.49%). Check IBKR a...
2026-02-03	PLTR	LONG	AMC	92%	$148.70 2026-02-02 09:34	$144.23 2026-02-03 09:30	1	$149 5.5%	$-4.47	-3.01%	0.070%	$1.00	lim/-	mid	🛑 Stop Loss	\| Manual fix: Stop loss triggered but DB update failed. Fixed 2026-02-04.
2026-02-03	PFE	LONG	BMO	92%	$26.73 2026-02-02 15:58	$26.13 2026-02-03 06:51	12	$321 11.8%	$-7.20	-2.24%	0.020%	$1.00	lim/-	large	🛑 Stop Loss (Hardware)	Corrected Feb 3, 2026: Original LONG 12 @ 6.73, hardware stop filled @ 6.13. PFE bug (Finding #109) ...
2026-02-02	AAPL	LONG	AMC	93%	$258.44 2026-01-29 09:34	$265.00 2026-02-02 13:13	1	$258 --	$+6.56	+2.54%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/-	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	[Shares synced from trading_positions - Finding #82] [Shares auto-synced from IBKR] \| RECONCILIATIO...
2026-01-30	AXP	LONG	BMO	88%	$358.07 2026-01-29 15:58	$353.00 2026-01-30 07:13	1	$358 --	$-5.07	-1.42%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/lim	large	⚡ Instant Exit (Earnings Miss)	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission) \| #344 (Jul 15, 2026): actual...
2026-01-29	XOM	LONG	BMO	83%	$140.47 2026-01-29 15:58	$137.01 2026-01-29 22:44	2	$281 --	$-6.92	-2.46%	0.472%	$2.00	lim/lim	large	🛑 Instant Exit (Stop Loss Backup)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.
2026-01-29	IBM	LONG	AMC	90%	$293.58 2026-01-28 09:34	$308.33 2026-01-29 15:55	1	$294 --	$+14.75	+5.02%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-01-29	MA	LONG	BMO	92%	$520.15 2026-01-28 15:58	$532.13 2026-01-29 09:30	1	$520 --	$+11.98	+2.30%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-01-28	T	LONG	BMO	74%	$23.02 2026-01-27 15:58	$23.41 2026-01-28 09:30	14	$322 --	$+4.32	+1.65%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	gross_pnl corrected (Finding #332: was realized_pnl + exit_commission)
2026-01-28	SBUX	SHORT	BMO	30%	$95.72 2026-01-27 15:58	$102.76 2026-01-28 08:34	2	$191 --	$-15.07	-7.87%	4.219%	$2.00	lim/lim	mid	🛑 Stop Loss (Software Backup)	STOP LOSS BUG FIX: Original hardware stop did not trigger due to is_connected() bug in trading_orche...
2026-01-27	TXN	LONG	AMC	78%	$195.64 2026-01-27 09:41	$208.03 2026-01-27 16:13	1	$196 --	$+12.39	+6.33%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/lim	large	⚡ Instant Exit (Earnings Miss)	Strong conviction paid off. Excellent timing.
2026-01-20	STT	SHORT	BMO	27%	$134.80 2026-01-15 15:58	$125.45 2026-01-20 09:44	4	$539 --	$+37.40	+6.94%	0.000%	$1.00	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	Added via audit fix - reconciliation bug (Finding #47)
2026-01-20	PNC	LONG	BMO	73%	$215.55 2026-01-15 15:58	$220.21 2026-01-20 09:43	2	$431 --	$+9.32	+2.16%	0.000%	$1.00	lim/lim	large	📅 Scheduled Exit	Added via audit fix - reconciliation bug (Finding #47)
2026-01-16	MTB	LONG	BMO	77%	$214.11 2026-01-15 16:00	$206.16 2026-01-16 09:45	2	$428 --	$-15.90	-3.71%	0.000%	$2.00	lim/sto	mid	Bmo Exit:After Market Open	\| Closed via audit fix - sync bug (Finding #47)
2026-01-08	JEF	LONG	AMC	83%	$65.17 2026-01-07 09:40	$62.00 2026-01-08 05:24	1	$65 --	$-3.17	-4.86%	0.000%	$1.27	lim/lim	Mid	⚡ Instant Exit (Crash Recovery Miss)	Loss within expectations. Market moved against.

ℹ️ Trade Data Schema All trade data is permanently stored for future analysis

📥 Entry Data Captured

Entry time, price, order type
Slippage ($ and %)
Commission/fees
IBKR order ID

📤 Exit Data Captured

Exit time, price, order type
Exit reason (scheduled/stop/instant)
Slippage and commission
Hold duration

🎯 Decision Factors

Conviction at entry & exit
Polymarket spread & volume
VIX level, S&P 500 change
Risk level, active breakers

Database: trade_audit_log table in PostgreSQL (same database as market data).
Retention: All trades are permanently stored for historical analysis and strategy optimization.

📊

Loading strategy analysis data...

⚠️ Always read alongside this tab — (1) Outlier dependence (memory §K): the top-5 winners carry the strategy's entire realized edge (ex-top-5 is NEGATIVE — live figures in the 📊 ROI Re-baseline panel's outlier-dependence KPI, regenerated every report run; Jul-6 regen: top-5 +$507 vs ex-top-5 −$103 on 124 clean trades). Always report ex-top-2 alongside any headline. (2) 4-check bias gauntlet + true-simulator rule are mandatory before adding any new finding to the Action Queue — and per Finding #330, a TRUE simulator must model the REARM path of any cancel-and-rearm stop rule, not just the silence. (3) Findings narrative lives only in docs/FINDINGS.md per memory §J.

🎯 Operator Cockpit · Capital: — · Max DD target: — · Live max DD: —

📊 Strategy Health — 5 KPIs

Time horizon:

Operator-chosen 5-KPI set per Phase ε design (May 29, 2026): expected weekly P&L · 5th-percentile worst-week · max drawdown vs 30%-of-capital target · outlier dependence (alarm if total_pnl ex-top-5-|pnl| trades ≤ 0; per memory.md §K) · capital efficiency.

🤖 Production strategy (current)

What's actually running on the bot RIGHT NOW. Single source of truth — no more guessing across docs.

⚡ Top 5 Decisions (DD-aware ranked)

Score = E[real $/wk lift] − λ × max(0, Δ max_DD). Items that improve DD or are DD-neutral get no penalty; items that worsen DD pay λ × ΔDD against their lift. λ=3 = balanced (operator-chosen Phase ε Q12).
Lift scaling: simulator runs at $10,000 notional per trade; post-FUND-1 (Aug 20, 2026) trading capital is ~$10,000, so an S2c equal-split position is up to ~$2,500 (≤25% cap) — real $/wk lift ≈ sim $/wk × (position ÷ $10,000). Pre-step history used ~$245 positions (10% of $2,450). Both shown below.

🌍 Regime now: -- SPY -- MA20 -- MA50 -- MA200 -- VIX -- (hover for classification rules · entry-time regime split in Performance Breakdowns)

📜 Strategy Evolution — canonical chronological changelog

What this is: every shipped strategy-affecting change, newest first, in ONE standardized format (Change → Why → Expected impact → Verification → Monitor) so the strategy's evolution reads chronologically in one place. How it stays honest: single source of truth src/earnings/strategy_changelog.py (also drives the History-tab P&L chart markers); a unit test enforces the schema; adding an entry is mandatory for every strategy change (memory.md §O). Deep-dive: each entry links to its Action Queue row / docs/FINDINGS.md narrative. Status filter: 🟢 Active 🟡 Amended ⚪ Superseded 🛑 Cancelled

🔬 2026-08 Full Re-validation (#357)

What this is: the complete data-driven re-validation of every strategy assumption (80-row register · 9 workstreams · 8 deep dives · synthesis) — the milestone review the 150-trade marker anticipated, re-issued as Parts I–IV with the operator's Aug 16–17 decisions folded in (#360 + the #361 approvals). Numbers are frozen census results (they do not refresh with new trades). Ship rule: decisions are recorded here; implementations ship separately in reviewed commits — nothing below is LIVE until its ship lands and deploys. Full report: docs/STRATEGY_REVALIDATION_2026_08.md · artifacts under scripts/analysis_357/.

📋 Strategy tab section index · use this map to jump to any section · all sections render below in scroll order

⚡ STRATEGIC (above the fold)

🎯 Operator Cockpit (target / KPIs / config / top 5)
📜 Strategy Evolution (chronological changelog — #338) ← above this map
🔬 2026-08 Full Re-validation (#357 — verdicts + operator decisions) ← above this map
🛡️ Bias Gauntlet (doctrine reference)
🎯 Action Queue (full list)

🧪 UNIFIED SIMULATOR (canonical engine)

🧪 Unified Simulator (overview + arms; incl. the #318/#319 selection-research KEEP summary)
🔬 Finding-A — live stop-loss arm
🧪 Capacity-Aware Sweeps (run at 1.40; live cap 1.50 since #335)
📦 Gate Retune Sweep (archived — decided #311)
🌐 Universe View — signal-quality arm (regenerated each build)

📊 LIVE TRADE ANALYTICS (today)

🌍 Regime strip (under the Cockpit) · 📊 ROI Re-baseline · 📈 Key Metrics
📐 Position Quintiles · 🔁 Learning Loop
Direction+Timing Matrix (canonical 1/2) · Stops (descriptive)
Top Trades · Prediction Accuracy
Performance Breakdowns (canonical 2/2)

⚙️ OPERATIONAL

🐛 Bug Impact Summary
🏦 IBKR Constraints Impact
📏 Statistical Confidence

📜 Backtest Scenarios + BMO/AMC Timing (Q3 2025 archive) retired from this tab in Phase 4 (#320) — superseded by the Unified Simulator (2026 data). Producers + JSON retained for reference.
#391 clean-up (Aug 21, 2026, operator-approved): phase-status banner (rules-of-engagement box kept, top of tab) · Phase 3 Simulator Status tracker · Performance-vs-Projections table (→ 📊 ROI Re-baseline Epoch-1 ladder) · selection-research cards (→ Unified Simulator bullet) · ROI-target model-baseline card all retired; Gate Retune Sweep archived in place (collapsed); regime snapshot → strip; Stop Loss + Stop Reversal merged into "Stops (descriptive)".

How to read this tab (top-to-bottom): 📜 Strategy Evolution = what shipped, chronologically (canonical changelog, #338) · 🎯 Action Queue = what to ship · 🛡️ Bias Gauntlet = methodology rules every finding must pass · 🔬 Finding-A Simulator = stop-loss decisions evidence · 🌐 Universe View = signal-quality evidence at universe scale · 📊 Live Performance + 🔁 Learning Loop + descriptive metrics below = supporting data.
Direction of trust: Action Queue pulls evidence FROM the simulator, universe view, and live data. To change a recommendation you change the underlying script (`build_action_queue()` in scripts/strategy_performance_analysis.py) — never edit dashboard sections in isolation.

🛡️ Bias Gauntlet (mandatory before shipping any new finding)

What this is: the four checks every new strategy rule must pass before being added to the Action Queue. Plus the 5-outlier reminder (renamed Apr 25 from 3-outlier — Finding #232) + the Apr 25 true-simulator rule. How to use: when proposing a new rule, run the analysis through this gauntlet first; if any check fails, the rule does not enter the queue. Source: docs/STRATEGY_AUDIT_v3.md §1 + §6 · .cursor/memory.md §K.

🧪 Unified Simulator — canonical strategy-analysis engine (Phase 3 complete · PR 1-5)

One engine, three populations. The Phase 3 simulator is the single source of truth for "what would this rule have done?" — it triangulates the same logic across live-traded trades, the counterfactual universe, and the capacity-constrained book. The panels below are its arms; each is labelled with its population so there is no ambiguity about which number to trust. (Replaces the old free-floating Universe View / Finding-A / Backtest sections — see STRATEGY_ANALYSIS_ARCHITECTURE.md §0.7 Phase 4 + docs/PHASE_3_SIMULATOR_DESIGN.md.)

Live stop-loss arm (🔬 Finding-A) — per-trade stop-loss rule replay on the bot's actual closed trades.
Capacity-aware arm (🧪 Capacity-Aware Sweeps + Gate Retune) — sizing / gate / SKIP / exposure variants at the then-live 1.40 cap on the live+counterfactual universe (cap raised to 1.50 Jul 11 2026, Finding #335).
Selection-rule research (Regime v2 #318 · Depth-gate v2 #319) — both resolved KEEP, no production change (#391 folded the two static evidence cards into this line: regime v2's fastest classifier gained +$70 live-only but FAILED −$17 capacity-aware — selection luck; the depth gate blocked 13 losers vs 9 killed winners ≈ break-even low-information filter → removal adds variance for ~$0 EV). Full evidence: docs/FINDINGS.md #318/#319 · re-runnable: scripts/phase3_simulator/replay_regime_v2.py / replay_depth_gate_v2.py.
Universe signal-quality arm (🌐 Universe View) — PM prediction accuracy + volume/mcap splits at universe scale.

🔬 Finding-A Simulator — Unified Simulator: live stop-loss arm (bot's actual closed trades · Finding #228)

What this is: per-trade counterfactual replay of every stop-loss rule proposed in the v3 audit (FA_soft, FA_hard, RuleB, RuleD, RuleG, RuleF) against Polygon 1-minute bars on the actual stopped-trade population. How to use: the source of truth for any stop-loss rule decision — re-run python3 scripts/analyze_finding_a_full.py before proposing any new stop-loss rule. Implications for the Action Queue: drove the Apr 25 retraction of v3 Finding A (Queue → RETRACTED), failure of D/G ATR variants (Queue → FAILED-GAUNTLET), and — after the Jul 5, 2026 gap-aware rearm fix (Finding #330) — the FAILED-GAUNTLET reversal of RuleB (its Phase-2 active flip is CANCELLED; no stop-loss rule variant currently survives).

Per-rule lift vs simulator A_base baseline

Rule	n	Headline Δ	per-100	ex-top-2 Δ	better	worse	Verdict

FA_hard breakdown by action (mechanism)

Action	n	Total Δ vs A_base	Avg / trade

Top losers under FA_hard

Symbol	Action	Δ vs A_base

Top winners under FA_hard

Symbol	Action	Δ vs A_base

Halt-suspect trades flagged

🧪 Phase 3 — Capacity-Aware Sweeps (PR 3.b) (loading…)

Per-event capital simulator on the full universe (live + counterfactual), run at the then-live exposure cap (1.40 = MAX_DAILY_EXPOSURE at run time; raised to 1.50 Jul 11 2026 — Finding #335) per Finding #315 — NOT the unwired MAX_TOTAL_EXPOSURE_PCT. Supersedes the pre-capacity Phase γ+δ "+$21/wk" projection (which assumed infinite capacity + the wrong cap). Findings: #314.b ($1k gate re-val), #314.c (sizing — raising is gauntlet-PASS at the live cap), #314.d (hybrid gate), #314.e (4 SKIP rules), #315 (exposure-cap curve), #316 (daily-tiering). Update Jul 6, 2026: the sizing-up candidate SHIPPED — FLAT 25/25/25 (Finding #314.f, +$7.40/wk on the strengthened Jul-5 re-run). Update Aug 20, 2026: flat-25 itself superseded by S2c equal-split ≤25% at the $10k capital step (PKG-357 #366). The #314.e SKIP-rule candidates remain defer-and-monitor (operator decision; revisit after 30+ live trades).

Loading capacity-aware sweep results…

📦 Archive: 🧪 Phase 3 — Gate Retune Sweep (PR 2) — decided #311 (May 30, 2026) · superseded by Capacity-Aware Sweeps above · click to expand (incl. the earnings-season peak-week calendar)

🚀 PR 2 COMPLETE — gate_uniform_$1000 SHIPPED to production (Finding #311, May 30, 2026)

Production code change: SIGNAL_MIN_VOLUME_TOTAL default lowered $2,000 → $1,000 in src/earnings/config.py. ⚠️ Lift CORRECTED (capacity-aware, live cap): the original "+$21/wk" was a pre-capacity, infinite-capacity projection. The capacity-aware re-validation at the then-live 1.40 cap (Finding #314.b — see the Capacity-Aware Sweeps section above) shows the real $1k-gate lift is +$6.61/wk (the $1k-$2k bucket is net-positive; capacity is binding). The other 2 ship-eligible variants (gate_quarterly_$2000peak_$1000other, gate_quarterly_$1000peak_$500other) RETRACTED-IN-FAVOR-OF gate_uniform_$1000. The hybrid seasonal gate was separately RE-EVALUATED + REFUTED (Finding #314.d — reverts most of #311's lift).

✅ PR 2 sweep REVALIDATED on backfilled multi-season universe — 10 of 11 variants PASS (was 3 of 11 on original 262-market Q1-only data)

⚠️ Notional disclosure: the per-variant numbers below (per-100, total, ex-top-2 etc.) are at $10,000 simulator notional per trade. The bot's actual position size varies by mcap tier (Large ~$537, Mid ~$339, Small ~$205, empirical avg from 127 closed live trades). To estimate real-world P&L at the HISTORICAL pre-FUND-1 $2,450 capital (the era these 127 trades were filled at), multiply per-100 numbers by ~0.034 (mid-tier) or ~0.054 (large-tier); post-Aug 20, 2026 capital is ~$10,000 (≈4× those factors). For the strategy-level view at REAL position size, see the 🎯 Operator Cockpit Top-5 section above (which uses per-tier empirical scaling). Audit fix May 30, 2026 — operator-driven correctness review.

PR 2.d.1 + 2.d.2 + 2.d.3 + 2.e + 2.f all SHIPPED on May 29, 2026 LATE morning per operator-approved refinement plan. The original PR 2.c sweep had 3 structural flaws (small sample / wrong seasonality classifier / possible mis-attribution of Q1-peak attention dilution as structural collapse). The refinement: (1) replaced day-of-month classifier with proper quarterly-cycle classifier (peak weeks 4/17/30/43±2 of year per academic literature); (2) backfilled 554 synthetic opp_log rows (185 below-gate + 369 above-gate) for pre-Apr-22 markets via Polymarket trades-table volume reconstruction + Polygon 1m bars; (3) re-ran the sweep on the expanded 447-market universe (262 native + 185 backfill below-gate) spanning Sep 2025 - May 2026 (Q3-2025 + Q4-2025 + Q1-2026 peaks + 3 off-seasons; 290 collapse + 157 healthy).

Result: 10 of 11 variants now PASS the gauntlet (was only 3). Top 3 candidates re-promoted to 👤 PENDING-OPERATOR-APPROVAL in the Action Queue with REVALIDATED markers. Per-trade lifts increased substantially on the broader data (e.g. gate_uniform_$1000: per-100 +$3,808 → +$11,784; ex-top-2 +$2,084 → +$8,490). The original concern that the ship-eligible verdicts were on fragile data has been REFUTED.

🧪 Phase 3 — Gate Retune Sweep (loading…)

What this is: per-variant × per-period sweep of 11 gate-threshold candidates over the usable counterfactual universe (447 markets after PR 2.d backfill, vs 262 in original PR 2.c). Each variant scored by the 5-check bias gauntlet (memory.md §K) per period (healthy / collapse / full) + the 3-condition conservative-ship eligibility check per Finding #310 Q3 (C).
How to read it: a variant is SHIP-eligible only if all 3 conditions hold — full-pop gauntlet PASS + ≥20 admitted markets in the collapse segment + ex-top-2 stays positive. Operator AskQuestion required before any production gate change ships.
Re-run: cd [REDACTED] && source .env && export DATABASE_URL && venv/bin/python3 scripts/phase3_simulator/runner.py --run-gate-retune-sweep

Boundary date: —
Universe: —
Eligible variants: —

No sweep data found. The runner's JSON output isn't present at the expected path. To generate it:

📖 Variant Glossary — what each gate variant actually means

Current production rule (post-Finding #311): a Polymarket earnings market enters bot evaluation only if its cumulative trading volume is at least $1,000 at signal-eval time. (This sweep was the pre-#311 analysis that evaluated lowering the then-$2,000 gate; gate_uniform_$1000 won and SHIPPED as Finding #311.) Each variant below proposes a DIFFERENT rule — either uniform (one threshold for every market) or seasonal (different thresholds for different weeks of the year).

Naming convention

gate_uniform_$X = "use threshold $X for EVERY market, regardless of when it reports". Example: gate_uniform_$1000 means "admit any market with cumulative volume ≥ $1,000".
gate_quarterly_$XpeakOnly_$Yother = "use threshold $X during PEAK earnings-season weeks; use threshold $Y during all OTHER weeks". So gate_quarterly_$2000peak_$1000other means "keep the pre-#311 $2,000 gate during the 4 hottest weeks of each earnings season, but lower it to $1,000 the rest of the year" (this seasonal variant was RETRACTED-IN-FAVOR-OF gate_uniform_$1000, which shipped as #311).

What "peak" and "other" mean (US earnings-season calendar)

Per FINRA + Investopedia + Wall Street Horizon + ScienceDirect 247K-firm study, US public companies cluster their earnings reports into 4 distinct "peak weeks" per year — one for each fiscal quarter. About 32% of US firms report in their single peak week and 54% in their top-2 weeks combined.

The simulator labels a market "peak" if its earnings_date falls within ±2 weeks of an academic peak week; "in_season" if within ±3 weeks but outside the peak window; "off_season" otherwise. For threshold purposes, "peak" = peak window only and "other" = in_season + off_season combined.

Concrete 2026 calendar

Quarter reporting	PEAK window (±2 weeks)	Notable companies (verified)
Q4-2025 reports	Jan 19 - Feb 1, 2026	Banks (JPM, BAC, WFC), tech megacaps (MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META)
Q1-2026 reports	Apr 20 - May 3, 2026	Wall Street Horizon Q1 peak: Apr 27 - May 15; May 7 = 1,168 reports
Q2-2026 reports	Jul 20 - Aug 2, 2026	Banks kick off mid-Jul; Q2 expected to mirror Q1 calendar
Q3-2026 reports	Oct 19 - Nov 1, 2026	Banks kick off mid-Oct; Q3 expected to mirror Q1+Q2

Total "peak" weeks per year: 4 quarters × 5 weeks (peak ± 2) = 20 weeks at the higher threshold; 32 weeks at the lower threshold ("other").

Plain-English read of the top 3 SHIP-eligible variants

gate_uniform_$1000 = "lower the gate from $2,000 to $1,000 every week of the year, no exceptions". Implementation: 1-line .env change. Cross-season validated: admits 186 of 447 historical markets at simulated +$118/market avg lift.
gate_quarterly_$2000peak_$1000other = "keep the $2,000 gate UNCHANGED during the 4 peak weeks per year; lower it to $1,000 every other week". Implementation: env var + day-of-year branch. Admits only 63 markets but at the highest per-trade lift (+$144/market avg).
gate_quarterly_$1000peak_$500other = "lower the peak-week gate to $1,000 AND the off-peak gate further to $500". Most aggressive of the 3: admits 206 markets with the strongest gauntlet cushion.

Per-variant sweep results (sorted by ship-eligibility then per-100 delta)

Variant	n_uni	n_adm	collapse	healthy	total $	per-100	ex-top-2 / 100	verdict	SHIP?

Per-variant detail

Eligible variants (3-condition conservative-ship per Finding #310 Q3 (C))

🛰️ Universe signal-quality arm — regenerated on every report build (Polygon-complete, Finding #321)

The Unified Simulator's universe arm: PM directional accuracy + volume/mcap splits across all in-band markets (n≈900), computed by analyze_universe_hit_rate() on every report build from earnings_markets.stock_return_* (resolver-backed, Polygon 1m). It answers "is the signal accurate at universe scale?" — a DIFFERENT question from current P&L (covered by the 🧪 Capacity-Aware Sweeps arm above). Data completeness (Finding #321, May 31): outcome/return coverage backfilled to 99.8% of past markets via the outcome resolver, and the counterfactual-P&L universe to 1,755/1,785 priced signals via Polygon — so the verdicts below reflect complete, current data.

🌐 Universe View — Unified Simulator: universe signal-quality arm (regenerated each build · Polygon-complete)

What this is: directional hit rate + hypothetical $10K-notional P&L for every Polymarket earnings market with conviction in the trade-eligibility band (LONG > 60 % / SHORT < 30 %) — independent of capital constraints, stops, and trade selection. Answers "is the underlying signal worth pursuing?" The bot's live trades are a sub-sample of this universe (current in-band / resolved counts are in the chip row below, regenerated each build; conviction backfill per Finding #230).
How to use: universe view is evidence, not a recommendation source. It validates / contests existing Action Queue items by showing whether a rule's signal generalises beyond the bot's actual trade history. The "Implications" footer at the bottom of this section lists which queue items it informs.

A. Volume sensitivity sweep (LONG conv > 60 %, day_close horizon)

The bot's actual volume gate is $1K cumulative (Finding #311, lowered from $2K; Findings #222–#226). The unfiltered universe was inflated by markets the bot would never trade.

min volume	n resolved	win %	avg $	total $

B. Directional hit rate by conviction bucket

Bucket	n	1h win %	4h win %	dayClose %	nextDay %	avg $	total $

C. LONG 80–90 % universe split by market cap (informs Finding D status)

Two views: unfiltered (legacy, inflated by markets without volume data) and at the bot's $1K gate (the operative comparison, #311). v3 Finding D wanted to skip Mid-cap LONGs at ≥ 80 % conviction; the gated split is what the queue verdict uses.

Unfiltered (legacy)

mcap	n	win %	avg $	total $

At bot's $1K gate (operative)

mcap	n	win %	avg $	total $

D. Tighter Finding C drift cross-check (5-day baseline)

Drift bucket	n	win %	avg $	total $

E. Polymarket prediction accuracy (universe scale — every in-band PM market with resolved outcome, n ≈ 600)

🔗 Implications for the Action Queue (post Apr 25 evening decisions)

Drove RETRACTION of v3 Finding C (drift filter, formerly Queue #2): operator chose option 3 — drop and rely on B + D + E + selection rules. Universe view at 5-day baseline showed the supposed "skip bucket" is net positive; live n=13 was at the gauntlet floor. Now in 🛑 RETRACTED section of queue.
Drove ON-HOLD of v3 Finding D (Mid-cap 80 %+ skip, formerly Queue #3): universe Mid LONG 80-90 % at the bot's $1K gate is POSITIVE without stops — opposite sign from live. Most likely cause per Finding #228: stops eat winners on live Mid-cap trades. Now in ⏸️ ON-HOLD — the RuleB dependency was REMOVED Jul 5, 2026 (Finding #330: RuleB failed the gap-aware gauntlet), so D re-evaluates as a pure selection rule at trade #150+.
Confirms Mar 9 IMPLEMENTED "Skip 90 %+ LONG conviction" (Finding #202): universe LONG 90-95 % = 50.9 % WR / −$2,886. Two independent lenses, same conclusion.
Volume coverage caveat (orange box above § A) was the trigger for Finding #229 and #230 — the original 35 % volume-coverage figure was the smoking gun. Post-backfill it's now ~91 %. Future analyses should still filter to the bot's $1K gate for apples-to-apples comparison with live trades.
Does NOT inform Queue #1 (downtrend LONG skip), #2 (non-downtrend SHORT skip), #3 (3-stop breaker), #4 (BMO+VIX sizing): universe view doesn't carry regime / VIX / session columns densely enough to re-check. Live evidence stands.
No NEW queue items proposed. Universe view is descriptive evidence; new rules require the full 4-check bias gauntlet, not just a positive bucket. Possible follow-on (n=32 unfiltered, 56 % WR, +$57 / trade): "lower LONG threshold from 70 % to 60 %" — borderline data, deferred to next audit pass.

📊 ROI Re-baseline — 3 epochs (Phase 5)

3-epoch ladder (old epochs frozen)

Metric	Epoch 1 — Pre-launch	Epoch 2 — 87-trade	Epoch 3 — Current

Hybrid forward projection (low confidence — shown side-by-side, not blended)

Net-new metrics (no Epoch 1/2 equivalent)

📈 Key Performance Metrics

Win Rate

Total P&L (gross)

EV/Trade

Profit Factor

Max Drawdown

Sharpe-like

ROI (Current)

📐 Position Sizing Quintiles (Clean Trades)

Interpretation note (PKG-357 #366, Aug 20 2026): trades before the ship date were sized flat-25 at ~$2,450 capital (earlier: 30/22/15 tiers); trades after are S2c equal-split (≤25% cap) at ~$10k capital — quintile boundaries mix the two size regimes, so cross-era quintile comparisons are NOT like-for-like.

Bucket	Trades	Avg $	$ Range	Win %	Total P&L

🔁 Learning Loop (Finding #227)

Counterfactual P&L on every skipped opportunity, plus regime / VIX bucketed performance. Run scripts/backfill_learning_loop.py to populate historical hypothetical P&L; forward capture is automatic via polymarket-resolver.timer.

Cost of skipped signals (by skip_reason)

Skip reason	Total	Computed	Winners	Avg % (canonical)	Total $ (@$10k notional)

Volume gate counterfactual

Skip reason	Total	Resolved	Win / Loss	Stops	Avg % (canonical)	Total $ (@$10k notional)

Performance by regime at entry

Regime	Trades	Win %	Stop %	Avg %	Total $

Performance by VIX bucket

VIX bucket	Trades	Win %	Stop %	Avg %	Total $

🐛 Bug Impact Summary

Clean Trades

Bug-Affected

Missed Signals

P&L Impact

Direction + Timing Matrix (canonical view 1 of 2: LONG/SHORT × BMO/AMC; descriptive — see Action Queue for actions)

Combo	Trades	Wins	Win Rate	Total P&L	Avg P&L

Stops (descriptive) (stop-loss impact + stop-reversal detail — see Action Queue for decisions)

Stop-loss recommendations live in 🎯 Action Queue at the top of this tab. Per Apr 25 Finding #228 simulator, broad stop-distance / outside-RTH tweaks fail the bias gauntlet. RuleB (±90 min window), the last surviving candidate, also FAILED once its simulator arm was made gap-aware (Finding #330, Jul 5 2026) — NO stop-loss rule variant currently survives. Everything below is descriptive only — do NOT extrapolate it into new stop rules without re-running scripts/analyze_finding_a_full.py (the 🔬 Finding-A Simulator above is the source of truth for stop decisions). The table lists stopped trades whose prediction was CORRECT, with the P&L they would have realized if held to the scheduled exit (actual Polygon prices) — the old "wider stops" What-If table was removed Apr 25 (its no-data-=-$0 assumption was misleading).

Stop Hit Rate

Stop Exits P&L

Normal Exits P&L

Net Impact

Stopped Trades With Correct Predictions

Symbol	Dir/Time	Entry	Stop Fill	Sched Exit	Stop P&L	P&L if Held	Conv

Top Trades

Top Winners

Symbol	Dir/Time	P&L	%	Conv	MCap

Top Losers

Symbol	Dir/Time	P&L	%	Conv	Exit

Prediction Accuracy (live trades only — the bot's closed trades, with realized P&L; sample size shown below)

Different population from § 🌐 Universe View > E above (which is universe-scale, ~600 markets). This panel is "did the bot's signal actually predict the right direction on the trades it took?"

Overall accuracy: --

Outcome	Trades	%	Total P&L	Avg P&L

Performance Breakdowns (canonical view 2 of 2: direction · timing · mcap · regime · conviction; bug-affected trades excluded)

Canonical multi-axis splits of the bot's closed trades (Phase 4 #320 consolidated the old 3 overlapping breakdown widgets to 2: this + the Direction+Timing Matrix above). Direction and Timing splits intentionally repeat the matrix above — keep them in sync (same population, same calc). Regime split here = entry-time across closed trades (not the live regime strip under the Cockpit at the top of the tab).

By Direction

Dir	Trades	WR	P&L	EV

By Timing

Time	Trades	WR	P&L	EV

By Market Cap

Cap	Trades	WR	P&L	EV

By Market Regime (entry-time across closed trades)

Regime	Trades	WR	P&L	EV

By Conviction Bucket

Conviction	Trades	WR	Avg Win	Avg Loss	EV/Trade	P&L

🏦 IBKR Constraints Impact

📏 Statistical Confidence

📈 ETF Stack Strategy Loading…

Phase

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Mode

PAPER

Live trading

DISABLED (hard-coded)

Paper killswitch

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Paper account

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🎯 Current Signal State …

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📊 Current Target Weights …

Sleeve	Instrument	Target %	Pre-VT %	$ Target
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💰 Performance — paper $100K starting capital …

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📈 Equity Curve

🔬 Performance Metrics — live vs research CAGR / Sharpe / Calmar / MaxDD; live needs ≥30 days for CAGR

Metric	Live (paper)	Research in-sample (2013-2024)	Research holdout (2025-2026)
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📅 Monthly Returns Compounded daily returns within each calendar month

Month	Days	Return %	$ P&L	Start Equity	End Equity	Max Intra-Month DD
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🎯 Per-Instrument P&L Attribution Strategy-owned instruments only (etfstack universe filter) — Findings etfstack-002 + etfstack-008

Instrument	Trades	Realized $	Unrealized $	Total $	Commission $	Open	Shares
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📊 Daily Return Distribution Summary stats over realized daily returns

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📍 Active Positions (strategy-owned, live IBKR paper snapshot) …

Instrument	Shares	Avg Cost	Market Value	Unrealized P&L	Last updated
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📒 Trade Log Last 50 paper orders placed

Placed	Sym	Sleeve	Side	Shares	Fill Px	Fill $	Comm	Status
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⚖️ Rebalance Decision Log Per-instrument target-vs-actual evaluation history (last 100)

Signal Date	Instrument	Target $	Actual $	Gap $	Gap %	Action	Detail
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📜 Recent Signal Log Last 20 days of regime / VT / sleeve picks

Date	Regime	Trigger	VIX	VXN	QQQ DD60	T4	VT	LDM	RSM	Core Def
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🔬 Backtest Diagnostic — research vs actual Replays signal_runner over historical data; surfaces drift between research model and live behavior

Phase 4 harness — runs are produced by the manual CLI: python -m strategies.etfstack.src.backtest_runner --from YYYY-MM-DD --to YYYY-MM-DD --label NAME (see RUNBOOK §9). Click any completed row below to chart its equity curve + recompute drift vs research baseline.

Run	Range	Days	Final $	Total Ret	CAGR	Sharpe	Calmar	MaxDD	Status
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Equity curve of most recent COMPLETED run (compounded synthetic returns):

📋 Cross-Run Synthesis & Forward Plan

analysis as of 2026-05-11 against the 5-run sweep

What the 5 backtests collectively tell us

Implementation is faithful to research. Run #9 (in-sample 2018-2024, 1,699 days) gave CAGR 36.96 % vs research's 26.12 % baseline. The +10.8 ppt overshoot is consistent with the cost-model gap (research used 10 bps round-trip × ~95 trades/yr ≈ 9.5 ppt CAGR drag; backtest uses 0 bps). Sharpe (1.504 vs 1.683) and MaxDD (-17.21 % vs -13.69 %) align within ±0.18 and ±3.5 ppt respectively. No significant model-vs-research drift to chase.
The strategy survives stress events. COVID 2020 (run #10): +48.3 % return, MaxDD only -13.22 % through one of the worst single-month equity crashes in history. 2022 bear (run #11): +8.0 % return in a year SPY was -19.4 %, MaxDD -10.96 %. The adaptive percentile regime classifier + Track 4 overlay are doing exactly what they were designed for — risk-off transitions arrive in time, Core sleeve scales down, defensive rotation captures the safety asset.
The 8.3-year long-window run captures the real worst-case drawdown. Run #12: 2,084 days, $100k → $983k (CAGR 31.75 %, Calmar 1.527, MaxDD -20.79 %). Continuous compounding across COVID + 2022 bear + recent volatility produces a deeper drawdown than any individual sub-window. Realistic deploy floor: -20 % drawdown is plausible, -30 %+ would be a red flag.
Yesterday's holdout-window MaxDD "anomaly" was window-specific, not systemic. Run #8 (holdout, MaxDD -16.15 %) is within ±5 ppt of every other run's MaxDD (-10.96 % to -20.79 %). Research's published holdout MaxDD of -8.91 % was an unusually shallow window for them, not an unusually deep one for us — the strategy's natural drawdown profile sits in the -13 % to -21 % band depending on which crises are included.
Realistic deploy expectation: CAGR 25-35 % with 15-25 % drawdown periods, Sharpe 1.0-1.5 in normal markets (down to 0.5-0.6 in slow grinds), Calmar 1.5-2.0 sustained over multi-year horizons. The strategy is highly leveraged-ETF dependent so single-day moves can be sharp; the 42-day vol target caps gross at 100 % which keeps tail risk bounded.

Forward plan

#	Action	Priority	Effort / Trigger
1	Add transaction-cost model (10 bps round-trip) in `signal_runner` or as a post-processing step on equity-curve writes. Brings the +10.8 ppt CAGR overshoot down to ~+1 ppt and gives honest "deployed-cost" headline numbers.	HIGH	~30 LOC, single PR
2	Let live paper accumulate 30+ trading days then compare live equity-curve against backtest #12 (long-window) day-by-day. Catches genuine model-vs-execution drift independent of research-spec ambiguity. Both `etfstack-execute.timer` and the dashboard infrastructure are already in place; this is a passive wait, not a build task.	HIGH	wait ~6 weeks
3	Resolve the 6 Phase-0 default spec questions (Q2/Q3/Q4/Q5/Q7/Q8 in STRATEGY_SPEC §12). Q2 (60-day high inclusive vs exclusive) is the highest-impact. Each one is a config-flag flip + re-run pair; surface as A/B comparison runs in the dashboard.	MEDIUM	~1h per question
4	Periodic re-run of the long-window backtest as live data accumulates (monthly cron the existing CLI). Detects data-source drift (Polygon vs yfinance prices changing post-fact, e.g., delayed dividend adjustments) and lets the operator track whether the strategy's historical profile is shifting under their feet.	LOW	trivial (timer)
5	Polygon plan upgrade decision. Polygon's 5-year history cap moves forward each day; by 2027-05 we'll need yfinance for any 2022-and-earlier data. Currently mitigated by the etfstack-004 fallback. Decision deferrable until paper-trading proves out.	LATER	$$ subscription

References: FINDINGS.md entries etfstack-001 through etfstack-004; STRATEGY_SPEC.md §12 for the open-questions tracker.

📊 Research vs Actual — drift analysis

Compare against:

…

Metric	Backtest (Phase 4)	Research baseline	Drift	Read
Awaiting first completed backtest…

💡 Recommendations

Recommendations populate after the first backtest completes.

Recommendations are generated dynamically from the observed drift magnitude + the still-defaulted Phase-0 spec questions (Q2-Q8 in STRATEGY_SPEC.md §12). They are heuristic guidance for operator investigation, not deterministic rules.

📖 Documentation Strategy specification, architecture, runbook, red-team notes

📅 Phased delivery Where we are, what comes next

Phase	Status	Description
0 — Foundation	✅ shipped	Subtree + 6 docs + migration 029 + dashboard stub + deploy hooks
0.5 — Paper Gateway	✅ shipped	xvfb-paper + x11vnc-paper + ibgateway-ibc-paper triple-stack on port 4002 (paper account DUP*, Finding #467.D — account id masked on public pages)
0.9 — Q1+Q6 spec confirmation	✅ shipped	Adaptive percentile regime rule + VT base_ret formula confirmed by author (Finding etfstack-001)
1 — Signal generation	✅ shipped	All sleeve modules + regime + Track 4 + VT; daily Mon-Fri 21:00 UTC signal runner. NO orders placed in this phase.
2 — Paper execution	✅ shipped	order_executor (4 hard safety locks), execution_runner (target-vs-actual diff w/ open/close threshold bypass), performance.py (CAGR/Sharpe/Calmar/MaxDD), 6 dashboard sections (KPIs, equity chart, perf metrics, positions, trades, rebalance log). Daily Mon-Fri 13:30 UTC execution timer ENABLED.
2.5 — Quote fallback	✅ shipped	quote_provider.py: IBKR-live → Polygon EOD → yfinance EOD chain so dry-runs and out-of-hours computation always have prices
3 — Performance + ops	✅ shipped	3b: 5 etfstack integrity-monitor rules (45/45 OK live). 3c: killswitch toggle button + POST /api/etfstack/killswitch (CONFIRMED token + reason; verified end-to-end). 3d: monthly returns + per-instrument P&L (universe-filtered per Finding etfstack-002) + daily-return distribution. 3a Telegram: SKIPPED per operator preference.
4 — Backtest harness	🚧 in flight	Replays signal_runner over historical Polygon/yfinance data → produces synthetic equity curve → research-vs-actual diagnostic. Surfaces drift between research model and live behavior. Migration 030 + backtest_runner.py + 3 dashboard endpoints + overlay chart.

🔬 Research expectations (NOT live performance) From the operator's research package — see RED_TEAM.md §0 for caveats

Window	CAGR	MaxDD	Calmar	Sharpe	Note
2013-07-12 → 2024-10-02	26.12 %	-13.69 %	1.908	1.683	Nested walk-forward Calmar selector (in-sample for design)
2025-03-21 → 2026-04-17	24.11 %	-8.91 %	2.705	1.478	Untouched holdout (NOT a bear market — see RED_TEAM.md §7)

BTC 5min — recording lab Polymarket btc-updown-5m · series 10684

Phase

1 — recording

Recorder

NOT RECORDING

Live quoting

DISABLED

Schema

btc5m (same Postgres)

Execution tree

NOT in this repo

Loading standing verdict…

This window — CLOB + Chainlink TWAP Resolution feed, not Binance spot

BTC TWAP

—

vs window open

—

Tape says

—

CLOB Up mid

—

CLOB Down mid

—

Waiting for the first Chainlink tick on this host…

17 August 2026 live sample Two samples, not mixed · report-only · CSVs win if prose drifts

	P2 ungated	Stage A 3.5¢
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Same day — nagi14agu v3 / combo (outside the sample) Live n=5 + 50w removal · does not reopen C-01

Storage + recorder contract Same database, new schema, raw jsonl on disk

Where it lives

What Phase 1 must record

WS book both legs	every event → jsonl
Derived book	1 Hz → btc5m.book_snapshots_1s
Trades	WS + Data API `takerOnly=false`
Gamma + winner	open / close / resolve
Heartbeat	5 s · stale > 10 s = FAIL
Chainlink BTC TWAP	RTDS 60s · jsonl + 1s table
Book silence	> 5 s in an open window = gap

288 windows / UTC day. 250 ms taker delay in every future sim. Do not interpolate L2 across a gap. BUY is not taker.

Integrity Heartbeat + window-close + daily

Rule	Cadence	FAIL when	Status	Last detail
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Document map — restart this project Click a row to read it on this page

#	Doc	Why
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Artifact archive Files from the other bot + this session

Present	Path	Bytes
Manifest not generated yet — copy archive first.

Phases Phase 1 is recording. Phase 5 spends money.

0 Foundation	shipped	Docs, schema, this tab, artifact archive. No WS.
1 Recorder	shipped	Public L2 + trades + Gamma + Chainlink TWAP + integrity. Written clock required to run.
2–3 Tape	waiting	7 days minimum, prefer 3–4 weeks. 288 windows/day.
4 Simulator	waiting	Replay L2 + prints. 250 ms delay. Mint model. No fake queue.
5 Live money	forbidden	Only if sim: gate binds on calm tape AND 5s markout improves.

Recorded windows Empty until Phase 1

Open	Slug	Winner	BTC open	BTC last	Δ $	Tape	BTC 1s	Book 1s	Trades	Gaps	Complete (tape)
No windows. Recorder not running.

📈 Polymarket Earnings Dashboard

📂 Database Integrity Dashboard

🟢 Regular Trading Hours (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET)

🟢 Extended Hours (All Exchanges, 4 AM - 8 PM ET)

Strategy Reference

Position Sizing (S2c — PKG-357, Aug 20 2026, #366)

Circuit Breakers

📚 Strategy & Operations

🔌 IBKR Integration

🧪 Testing & State Machines

🗄️ Database & Data Architecture

⚙️ System & Agent

📅 Market Schedule

⏰ Timing Schedule (ET)

🚨 Critical Alerts (Action Required)

🛑 Circuit Breakers

📊 Trading Performance & History

📥 Entry Data Captured

📤 Exit Data Captured

🎯 Decision Factors

📊 Strategy Health — 5 KPIs

🤖 Production strategy (current)

⚡ Top 5 Decisions (DD-aware ranked)

📜 Strategy Evolution — canonical chronological changelog

🔬 2026-08 Full Re-validation (#357)

🛡️ Bias Gauntlet (mandatory before shipping any new finding)

🎯 Action Queue (combined, single source of truth)

🧪 Unified Simulator — canonical strategy-analysis engine (Phase 3 complete · PR 1-5)

🔬 Finding-A Simulator — Unified Simulator: live stop-loss arm (bot's actual closed trades · Finding #228)

Per-rule lift vs simulator A_base baseline

FA_hard breakdown by action (mechanism)

Top losers under FA_hard

Top winners under FA_hard

Halt-suspect trades flagged

🧪 Phase 3 — Gate Retune Sweep (loading…)

📖 Variant Glossary — what each gate variant actually means

Naming convention

What "peak" and "other" mean (US earnings-season calendar)

Concrete 2026 calendar

Plain-English read of the top 3 SHIP-eligible variants

Per-variant sweep results (sorted by ship-eligibility then per-100 delta)

Per-variant detail

Eligible variants (3-condition conservative-ship per Finding #310 Q3 (C))

🌐 Universe View — Unified Simulator: universe signal-quality arm (regenerated each build · Polygon-complete)

A. Volume sensitivity sweep (LONG conv > 60 %, day_close horizon)

B. Directional hit rate by conviction bucket

C. LONG 80–90 % universe split by market cap (informs Finding D status)

D. Tighter Finding C drift cross-check (5-day baseline)

E. Polymarket prediction accuracy (universe scale — every in-band PM market with resolved outcome, n ≈ 600)

🔗 Implications for the Action Queue (post Apr 25 evening decisions)

📊 ROI Re-baseline — 3 epochs (Phase 5)

3-epoch ladder (old epochs frozen)

Hybrid forward projection (low confidence — shown side-by-side, not blended)

Net-new metrics (no Epoch 1/2 equivalent)

📈 Key Performance Metrics

📐 Position Sizing Quintiles (Clean Trades)

🔁 Learning Loop (Finding #227)

Cost of skipped signals (by skip_reason)

Volume gate counterfactual

Performance by regime at entry

Performance by VIX bucket

🐛 Bug Impact Summary

Direction + Timing Matrix (canonical view 1 of 2: LONG/SHORT × BMO/AMC; descriptive — see Action Queue for actions)

Stops (descriptive) (stop-loss impact + stop-reversal detail — see Action Queue for decisions)

Stopped Trades With Correct Predictions

Top Trades

Top Winners

Top Losers

Prediction Accuracy (live trades only — the bot's closed trades, with realized P&L; sample size shown below)

Performance Breakdowns (canonical view 2 of 2: direction · timing · mcap · regime · conviction; bug-affected trades excluded)

By Direction

By Timing

By Market Cap

By Market Regime (entry-time across closed trades)

By Conviction Bucket

🏦 IBKR Constraints Impact

📏 Statistical Confidence